Saratoga: Saturday, 8/12, Plays ** Petes Picks **
- Little Pete
- Aug 12, 2023
- 6 min read
We start on the turf but will we finish? Rain is expected later so be ready to call an audible if the sky opens up. Looks great until later in the card so let's enjoy it while we can. I will be condensing my plays down to just the number and attacking the early double (Races 1 & 2) and a spot pick 3 (Races 6-8). Big Pete will attack his "Play of the Day" and the late pick 3 (Races 9-11); GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $2.00 Early Double:
R1: 5, 6, 8
R2: 2, 3, 7, 9
Cost: $24.00
Little Pete's $ 1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R6: 2, 6, 11
R7: 4, 8, 10, 11
R8: 2, 4, 5, 6
Cost: $48.00
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R9: 4, 6
R10: 1, 4, 7, 10
R11: 1, 2, 4, 6, 9... Dirt Single 12
Cost: $ 40.00
Little Pete's Early Double:
Race 1:
(5) Tall Paul is going to be on the lead early and tough to catch late. The horse is, unfortunately, a must play in this position. The horse that I like to make it interesting late is (6) Mama’s Middie who closed well in debut and if wasn’t so far back from the jump, may have broke his maiden on debut. I will also be including the Pletcher/Saez horse, (8) Quiet Wisdom, to the outside who is showing a ton of speed in the morning and I like the thought of Luis Saez vs. Joel Rosario battle down the stretch late; advantage LUIS.
$3.00 WPS 6 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 6,8 w/ 5,6,8 Cost: $8.00
$4.00 Ex 5 w/ 6,8 Cost: $4.00
Race 2:
(7) Ocean Mermaid is another horse that is a must play with the only experience in this field and it was against winners. (9) King Julien with Julien Leparoux aboard; SIGN? This horse has the same lineage as the heavy favorite and I think being to the outside of this field helps out this horse with a nice trip. (3) Reverend Moon is going to find the rail early and Rosario will have speed late to compete in here. (2) Revelatory is a Pletcher/Irad combo that is choosing grass first time out and that usually equals success.
$3.00 WPS 9 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 7,9 w/ 2,3,7,9 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 2,3 w/ 2,3,7,9 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 3:
(6) MURSAL was trying to hold off Into Happiness last time but she is on a roll. The Classic Empire's don't mind distance so te extra furlong shouldn't matter here. Franco is possible lone speed so if he can clear from out there, she will be tough to catch.
I’m looking for either (2) Sa Foradada or (1) Jolly Miss Jill to close in late for the 2nd spot.
$ 7.00 WPS 6 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 6 w/ 2, 5 Cost $ 14.00
We’ll also use (6) Mursal in R3 and try to cash a DAILY DOUBLE play.
We’ll use (3) Commerce Comet and (6) One Giant Leap in the 4th.
$ 7.00 Double 6 w/ 3, 6 Cost $ 14.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 5:
Pletcher and Mott will take some action as Eliminate and Reynolds Channel are getting a few touts. I want the Hard Spun colt (8) INFORMED PATRIOT in this 7F test. Asmussen has quietly put together a decent meet. Only 3 wins but is 15 out of 27 in the money. He shipped this guy in and he responded with a big bullet last Wednesday. A maintenance breeze followed that and they draw nicely outside the speeds.
Either (1) Eliminate or (3) Reynolds Channel to hang on for the 2nd spot.
$ 7.00 WPS 8 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta Box 1, 3, 8 Cost $ 18.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 6:
(11) Richies Princess has that bullet workout coming in and there isn’t a horse in here that really impresses me with experience, ride Irad. (2) Nolita is going to be bet down in here from 5/1 and should be running on a wet track again this second time out. Junior Alvarado has a horse that should show more stamina and I really like this horse to improve from the debut. (6) Better Humor Me is my last play in here who is lightning in the morning and I think the track will play to speed today.
$3.00 Ex Box 2,6,11 Cost: $18.00
Race 7:
(8) Love Reigns is going to be set up very well with the expected speed in here and a must play. I am going with a price in here with (11) Reflexivity who is ascending at the moment and I know this is the first time she has faced winners, but she won off of an extended layoff and the bullet workout coming into this one. I will also include (4) Love Appeals and (10) My Sweet Affair who are exiting the same race they fell short in, but I think the race set up should play to both of these horse’s strengths and make it very interesting late.
$3.00 WPS 11 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 8,11 w/ 4,8,10,11 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 4,10 w/ 4,8,10,11 Cost: $6.00
Race 8:
(4) Haul is a horse that I will bet to be the real deal from the Pletcher barn. This is going to be a battle for the lead early in the Gr.2 stakes race and I trust Irad to navigate the rail position to perfection to have plenty of horse late. (5) Edified and (6) Rhyme Schemes are just too scary to leave off the ticket in here and should all be forwardly placed throughout this race. I am going to give (2) Market Street a chance in here with some expected rain and throw away the bobbled start last time out in the Sanford. This horse is going to be interesting late and worth the investment on the ticket, IMO.
$5.00 WPS 4 Cost: $15.00
$2.00 Ex 2,4 w/ 2,4,5,6 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 5,6 w/ 2,4,5,6 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 9:
I know it's Saratoga but, I can't see anyone else other than Casa Creed or Annapolis winning this years G1 FourStarDave. (6) CASA CREED is the defending champ and beat his rival in the Kelso. He was well positioned and ran his race and I'm expecting a similar run today. I'm leaning more towards (4) ANNAPOLIS to turn the table today. Irad is back from his suspension and will be a little more aggressive with him. Annapolis may have been a little short last time and Pletcher was probably pointing to this race from the start.
$ 5.00 Ex 4, 6 w/ 4, 6, 7 Cost $ 20.00
Race 10:
Here's where the Pk3 sequence gets a little dicey. This one looks wide open. I'll start with (4) WHAT'S UP DOC on the cut back. 1M fits better for this Chrome and he gets in light. He gets first jump on the closers. (10) ICE ROAD will be a price. If you believe the weather prediction, moisture should be here by post. That probably helps this Keen Ice as they usually run well in the mud. Irad up doesn't hurt either. I have a (1) GUT FEELING about this one. Dutrow makes the switch to Saez and the cut him back a little. He has the speed to gain position from his rail draw and Luis will take it from there. Look for them to get some separation turning for home. (7) CHILENO is the Rice claim that jumps off the page. She ran this Gun Runner against My Sea Cottage who is trying the G1 4*Dave today. They move back to the dirt and sports a bullet on the 9th. Appears LIVE to me.
$ 7.00 WPS 1 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 1, 7 w/ 1, 4, 7, 8 Cost $ 18.00
Race 11:
We close the show hopefully on the grass but we'll see about that. (6) SOLIB looks very tough in here if they get it off on the turf. Saez takes the mount as this guy wasn't himself last time. Rank and checked throughout, I'm guessing Maker has him staightened out for this. (2) WATERVILLE beat Solib and should be a factor late. Clement goes to their stable rider for this. (4) STELLA MARS is on a roll right now. She moves back in against fellow NY Breds and is a must use for me. (9) PHOTON just broke her maiden and now faces winners. Not an easy task but Irad makes a difference and is a decent price. The same can be said about (1) SPINNING COLORS. She too broke her maiden last time but she has come baack a new animal this year. Both 2023 starts have been solid and that's when they added L1 to the mix. She doesn't need to improve much in here today. If this comes off the turf....(12) CHARGE NURSE is your likely winner.
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