Belmont Stakes Day at SARATOGA: Saturday, 6/8 - Pete's Picks
- Little Pete
- Jun 7, 2024
- 7 min read
The Belmont Stakes has come to Historic Saratoga Racecourse this year. We will both be in attendance to see the Belmont in person for the first time. We have 14 on the card with NINE of them Stake races. I will be focused on an early Stakes double (Races 4 & 5), as well as a spot pick 3 (Races 6-8). Big Pete will have his "Play of the Day" on Race 5 and be locked in to take down the late pick 3 starting with the Belmont Stakes (Races 12-14). We appreciate you taking a look at this write-up and GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $2.00 Spot Double:
R4: 1, 4, 5, 7
R5: 2, 3, 7
Cost: $24.00
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R6: 1, 7, 8
R7: 5, 6
R8: 1, 4, 7, 9, 10
Cost: $ 30.00
LP & BP's $1.00 BONUS Pick 3:
R9: 2, 6, 8, 12
R10: 1, 2, 4
R11: 5, 6, 7, 9
Cost: $ 48.00
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3 ( Belmont Stakes):
R12: 2, 8, 9
R13: 4, 5, 7, 10, 11
R14: 10, 11
Cost: $ 30.00
Belmont Stakes Selection:
Little Pete: (5) Antiquarian
LP Reasoning: This horse has been ascending each time he hits the track and I am playing him to have his best performance to date; he'll need it. I am playing for this horse to break well and be forwardly placed. Johnny V should be able to navigate a clean break here and be able to work a trip to sit chilly off the lead. There is a monster to the outside, Sierra Leone, but this horse has some serious battles under his belt already. Good on Sierra Leone if he can run down the field late AGAIN.
Big Pete: (9) Sierra Leone
BP Reasoning: This Gun Runner is built for this track and distance. He's been touted all along as the best 3yr old out there and today is his day. With speed to his outside and Grey on the rail, this figures to be a decent pace to close into. Prat will be the deciding factor as he takes over and will guide him home. Dan will add some early heat as well so look for some prices to come late and fill a nice exacta.
Little Pete's Early Stake's Double:
Race 4:
I am including the 1/1 ML (5) Gun Pilot, but I think this is a race set up for an upset. The horse that I will leaning into a little more is (7) Baby Yoda. This horse had a triple beyer speed on a wire-to-wire win last time out and has a bullet workout coming into this one. This horse is going to be able to break free from the pack and I am playing the race track to favor speed. We also should consider Irad getting the mount on (4) Accretive and closing strongly down the lane against competing speed on the lead. My last play is going to be a stalking (1) NinetyPrcentMaddie who will have something left late to make it interesting.
$3.00 WPS 7 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 4,7 w/ 1,4,5,7 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 1,5 w/ 1,4,5,7 Cost: $6.00
Race 5:
I landed on the Pletcher/Irad combo in (7) Talk of the Nation. He lost by a head bob last time out to (3) Carl Spackler and I think the track will play a little more favorable to the horse on the front here. I can't leave the 8 year old off the ticket either in (2) Casa Creed. Luis is going to have this horse right on the rail early and find a way through to make it interesting late.
$3.00 WPS 7 Cost: $9.00
$3.00 Ex 7, w/ 2,3 Cost: $6.00
$2.00 Ex 2,3 w/ 2,3,7 Cost: $8.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 3:
(6) AWESOME NATIVE has been away for half the year but the bullets have been firing in the AM. The connections are not running here often but Rosario is. They convinced Joel to come back aboard like he did last year here and almost won. That similar effort gets it done today as this Practical Joke looks live.
$ 7.00 WPS 6 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 6, 8 w/ 5, 6, 7, 8 Cost $ 18.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 6:
I am going with (7) Crupi to kick off this pick 3, with some support from others. I think that Irad will be able to shoot from the gate and sit right off the lead and run down their foes late. (1) Signator to the inside is another horse that I like in here to run a big one late. (8) Bendoog is going to be sent to the lead and that has been extremely favorable to horses over the past couple of days here. Lezcano has a win on him two back and should have time, through the stretch the first time, to clear his rivals.
$5.00 WPS 7 Cost: $15.00
$5.00 Ex 7 w/ 1,8 Cost: $10.00
$2.00 Ex 1,8 w/ 1,7,8 Cost: $8.00
Race 7:
I am not going to overthink this one and go with the clear favorite in here, (5) Idiom. It will take a huge effort from the others in here to dethrone this champion in the Gr.1 Ogden Phipps and I just can't play for this horse to not have his B+ game.
$10.00 Ex 5 w/ 1 Cost: $10.00 (CHILLY EXACTA)
Race 8:
(10) Nutella Fella from the bench to the winning circle! This horse is speedy in the morning and I think that late kick is going to propel this horse late to hit the wire first. If this horse needs a race under their belt, then I will spread a little bit. (1) Book'Em Danno is going to be my speed on the lead with Irad aboard and this horse is going to have every chance to run a big one in here with the positioning. (7) Prince of Monaco and (4) Valentine Candy are going to be sitting right off the lead and both are going to run a similar stretch drive and worth including. My last play will be (9) Nash who lost to the Preakness winner last time out and has the stalking style to run a big one here.
$5.00 WPS 10 Cost: $15.00
$2.00 Ex 9,10 w/ 1,4,7,9,10 Cost: $16.00
$1.00 Ex 1,7 w/ 1,4,7,9,10 Cost: $8.00
LP & BP's BONUS Pick 3:
Race 9:
LP: I like the two out of towners here in (6) Star of Mystery and (12) Mischief Magic. I am leaning on (12) Mischief Magic as my top pick in here and I think will break strong and fan out wide for an exciting finish.
$5.00 WPS 12 Cost: $15.00
BP: Mischief Magic does look tough in here but I'll also include Torres on (2) Arzak to mount a late charge as well.
$3.00 Ex 2, 12 w/ 2, 6, 8, 12 Cost: $18.00
Race 10:
LP: I am all in on (2) National Treasure in here and think that Flavien is going to be storming down the stretch. I also like the Chad Brown horse in (4) Blazing Sevens to run a huge race late and eat up ground with tiring horses in front of him.
$3.00 Ex 2,4 w/ 2,3,4,6 Cost: $18.00
BP: I'll try a longshot in here with (1) Castle Chaos and try to hit the board.
$7.00 WPS 1 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex Box 1,2,6 Cost: $18.00
Race 11:
LP: (9) Measured Time is going to be roaring down the stretch in this marathon and I am going to invest heavier on this one. (5) Program Trading has done nothing but produce on the grass and worthy of an inclusion in here as well.
$7.00 WPS 9 Cost: $21.00
$5.00 Ex 9 w/ 5,6,7 Cost: $15.00
BP: It's all (7) Nations Pride for me in here. The shorter distance will help and he may have needed one with this race in mind.
$7.00 WPS 7 Cost: $21.00
$5.00 Ex 7 w/ 6,9 Cost: $10.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 12:
(9) SIERRA LEONE as mentioned above is perfect for this distance and track. Brown switches to Prat and they mean business today. The value will come underneath. I'm not sure (8) HONOR MARIE can beat Leone if they both bring their A game but he'll be ready if Sierra has a hiccup. (2) RESILENCE is my sleeper in here. Jr may have moved too soon so I'm expecting a more patient ride and close in late for a piece.
$ 7.00 WPS 9 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Ex B 9 w/ 2, 8 Cost $ 14.00
Race 13:
This two turn MSW on the turf looks wide open to me. I'll land on (11) NORTH END LADY to like the switch back to turf. The addition of Prat doesn't hurt either. (10) TOP OF THE TABLE also switches surfaces and with Kitten's Joy underneath, there is no reason to think she won't like it. (7) SPLASHY returns from a layoff and he gets Irad for this. His prior grass attempts stack up well with these. Both (4) IN ALL MY DREAMS and (5) DOWNTOWN CHANNEL prefer grass and pick up two top riders.
$ 7.00 WPS 11 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 7, 11 w/ 5, 7, 10, 11 Cost $ 18.00
Race 14:
We close the show with a sprint on the grass. (11) MANSA MUSA figures to take some money as he ships in with some decent speed figures. (6) YARROW has a race or two that wins this. Rosario takes over the reigns for Clement. (10) TWENTY SIX BLACK tries open company but has been posting some big numbers with Franco. (9) CAPTURE THE FLAG is the sleeper. They cut this one back and broke his maiden here last year.
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