Saratoga: Saturday, 7/16, Plays - Pete's Picks
- Little Pete
- Jul 16, 2022
- 6 min read
Saturday at the Spa and I will find myself at one of the picnic tables today. We have a stacked card today with 11 races, which is headlined by the Diana in Race 8. I will be looking to take down the early double (Races 1-2) and a middle pick 3 (Races 6-8) . Big Pete will have his full breakdown on his "Play of the Day" and the late pick 3 (Races 9-11). We appreciate you taking a look at this write-up and GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $2.00 Early Double:
R1: 1, 3, 6
R2: 3, 4, 5
Cost: $18.00
Little Pete's $ 1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R6: 1, 6, 8
R7: 5
R8: 1, 3, 4, 6
Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R9: 1, 2, 4, 9
R10: 2, 4, 9
R11: 3, 6, 9, 13
Cost: $ 48.00
Little Pete's Early Double:
Race 1:
My top pick in here is the (3) Fiery Heart who should be able to handle the dirt better the second time out and Luis Saez choosing to ride again is a big bump for me. (6) Psychic Income will get a try for me in here from the Jorge Abreu barn who typically has horses ready to roll first time out, even if this horse is a four year old. (1) Never Change is my last play to the inside and the class drop in here. Irad will be aggressive early and put this horse is a great position to sustain a big run.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 1,3,6 Cost: $12.00
Race 2:
(3) New York Banker is dangerous in here and with the switch to Irad Ortiz this horse becomes a must play. This horse has had some trouble from the gate in the last two and went against some very competitive horses in those races. I think Irad will break clean here and have a say late. (4) Quick Money is a speed horse that found a second gear last time out and I like horses in a zone coming into their next race. (5) Cupids Girl is another interesting horse in here who performed well after some class relief. I think this horse will be very dangerous come stretch drive with there being some early speed battles.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 3,4,5 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 3:
Some of the comments for (8) SARATOGA CHROME in he running lines. Checked, nailed, broke thru gate and DQ’d. She’s done it all in her short career and now it’s time to graduate. She already has finished first doing it here last year but was taken down. Now she gets a new face with Tyler and sports a a fast workout for this. She can go or stalk so Gaff will see how the break goes and take it from there
(4) Whatlovelookslike, (4) Robyn and Eli and (10) Succulent all look solid underneath.
$ 7.00 WPS 8 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 8 w/ 1, 4, 10 Cost $ 21.00
We’ll also use (8) Saratoga Chrome in R3 and try to crash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
We’ll use likely favorite (2) Higher Quality and (6) Karl Cares look solid in the 4th.
$ 7.00 Double 8 w/ 2, 6 Cost $ 14.00
Race 5:
Pletcher makes the switch to Irad on (3) FRONT LINE DANCER in this NY Bred NX1 Alw. He was left with too much to do after a slow pace developed and then came late for minor awards. Guessing these connections will be a little more forwardly placed today and pick up the leaders mid stretch
(5) Mr. Kringle and (10) Marinara Sauced will be the danger for 2nd.
$ 7.00 WPS 3 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 3 w/ 5, 10 Cost $ 14.00
We’ll also use (3) Front Line Dancer in R5 and try to crash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
$ 7.00 Double 3 w/ 1, 4 Cost $ 14.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 6:
(8) Alcools looks poised to run down the horses late and collect another check; must play with Prat being undefeated on the horse. (6) Double Shot is a very interesting horse in here who took a step up in class after winning two back in a claiming race. This horse is getting back to the preferred competition and will have a late close under Jose Ortiz. (1) Flamingo Hawk gets some class relief in here and Irad is getting the mount. This horse competed against tremendous speeds in his last two races and should have much more favorable fractions to run into.
$3.00 WPS 8 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 1,6,8 Cost: $12.00
Race 7:
(5) Reinvestment Risk will be a tough beat in here and I do not want to overthink this one. I am going to single this one and see how we can maximize our horizontal plays. Irad will be able to break right behind the pace and then have an impressive stretch drive that puts this one out of reach very quickly.
$20.00 WIN 5 Cost: $20.00
Race 8:
Chad Brown is looking to continue his dominance in the Diana and has the top 4 horses in here. It will be difficult to bet against (3) Bleecker Street in here with her perfect record, but this is going to be a race about trips. I really like the post position for (1) Technical Analysis and Jose Ortiz has proven to be a winner aboard this filly. I will also be including a better closing race from (4) Rougir who will not be shuffled back as far this time out. (6) In Italian may perform better with the switch to Rosario and his strong hands down the stretch. I think that plays well into this horse’s preferred running style.
$5.00 WPS 1 Cost: $15.00
$2.00 Ex 1,3 w/ 1,3,4,6 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 4,6 w/ 1,3,4,6 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 9:
This one looks wide open so I will go five deep to kick off this late Pk3. Pletcher has two and we’ll use them both, but I prefer (2) ROYAL SPIRIT and the switch to Saez over the closer, (4) ANALOGY. Brown will be tough with (6) CREDIT EVENT as they switch to Irad after a narrow miss last time. I landed on the entry (1A) DRIPPING GOLD. Prat gets off the Brown runner and likely favorite above and rides for Shug. He was 3 lengths behind Credit Event when he made his 2022 debut in June. With that race under his belt and the rider switch, this guy looks primed for a big effort. You get two for one and the price is hard to pass up.
$ 7.00 WPS 1 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 1, 6 w/ 1, 2, 4, 6 Cost $ 18.00
Race 10:
(9) ANDIAMO A FIRENZE took a ton of money in his debut and didn’t disappoint. He was geared down close to the wire and saved some for today. Jose subs in for his brother which leads me to (4) FORTE. Irad chooses this one and why not. Pleatcher had him ready and the hype was real when he dominated his rivals in May. They have been waiting for this Sanford and it’s now go time. I’m expecting a Re-Pete performance which spells trouble for this group. Pletcher has a back up plan in (2) MAJOR DUDE. He too was a handful on debut but didn’t face much down in Jersey. That doesn’t mean this Bolt D’Oro won’t come running late. If oterhs take on Forte early, he’ll be there to take it the rest of the way.
$ 7.00 Ex 4 w/ 2, 6, 9 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 2, 9 w/ 2, 4, 6, 9 Cost $ 18.00
Race 11:
Saez almost got there with (3) NOBLE ENTERPRISE last time and is primed to get it today. They should save some ground around both turns and come with a rush late. (6) BELLA CONCHITA tried much better last time so the drop in class and distance makes this filly the one to beat. (9) PRINCESS BLAKELY is the gorilla in the room as Brown and Irad team up and ship this Cairo Prince north to face stiffer competition. If we get the 4:1ML we may have to put this one on top. I’m interested in the AE that draws in. (13) LOOKIN TO FLY has faced some tough runners last year and narrowly missed both times at this level. She makes her 2022 debut today and her best races have come here at the Spa. Tyler will need to save some ground somewhere and if he does, This Mare will reward him with a strong late kick.
Let’s have a days kings !