Saratoga 8/2 Pick 3 Plays
- Little Pete
- Aug 2, 2020
- 6 min read
Sunday racing in Saratoga and we have a ten race card; headlined by the Birdstone in the 9th. We are going to remain consistent and focus on a pair of pick 3 plays, as well as our "Play of the Day." I will be keying in on races 5-7, and Big Pete will be focusing in on races 8-10. We saw some great racing yesterday and anticipate some nice payouts on today's card. Make sure to subscribe to the newsletter to receive notification of new blog posts and weekly blog emails. GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R5: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7
R6: 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
R7: 5
Cost: $35.00
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R8: 6, 7, 8, 11
R9: 2, 3, 6
R10: 1, 7, 8, 9
Cost: $48.00
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 7:
I may tweet another "Play of the Day" out, but I fell in love with (5) Shiraz in this one. I mentioned some of the reasons below in the PK3 write up, but just can't stop thinking about him. I am anticipating a big race in this one and going to be using pretty heavily in this one. May have to make some Shiraz fan club t-shirts if this horse runs a big race.
I would bet a little less than what makes you uncomfortable on a WPS on (5) Shiraz
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 2:
Better days are behind most of these as we reached to bottom of the barrel. The one that stands out to me is (2) MILLS. He has 3 wins this year after posting none all of last year. This 10 year old is better suited to go the 9F more so than the rest of this group. He may appear to be gaining on the front runners, but they most likely will be backing up as he maintains his same stride. Cancel has been on him for those three wins and they are looking for their 4th. 4:1 seems fair so well use the old-timer across the board.
$7.00 WPS (2) MILLS Cost: $21.00
Will also be throwing in to an exacta with 1, 4, and 7.
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 5:
(7) Unleveraged will get a play on my ticket here, but Chad Brown just doesn't send out winners to a claiming tag race. I think this is where we can find our value with a couple of others who I like here. (2) Ian Glass has consistently seeked the early lead, but I think in this one he will be sitting right behind that speed with the dangerous Rosario aboard. I think that this will save this horse some late energy and will have a chance to hit the wire first. (4) Megacity is exiting the same race as (2) Ian Glass, and actually finished in front of him. I think that this horse will also be forwardly placed from the gate and have a chance to run down this field. (5) War Film is kind of the wild card to me in here. I know he is the second choice on the morning line, but I am not in love with him. I think that the move to Jose Ortiz will allow this horse to get the aggressive trip he wants and could try and wire the field. My last play is going to be (6) Impazible Odds with the apprentice aboard. I think that this horse has the closing ability to pass some tiring horses if the early pace is blistering. I think this horse could play spoils to the others.
$3.00 WPS 2 Cost: $9.00
$1.00 Ex 2,4,6 w/ 2,4,5,6,7 Cost: $12.00
Race 6:
I am going to spread out in this race and will start with a couple of horses that I like that have some experience. (2) Spun D'tat held a consistent third first time out on an off track, and I think second time out on a fast track should only help this horse and make her a contender. (8) Right to Freedom is moving to dirt here for Mark Casse and I like the jockey switch. Could sit off the pace and have a more convincing stretch drive this time out. (9) Beautiful Farewell ran a very nice rice first time out at Belmont and should improve on that effort, which makes this horse a player for me. Now let's get to the dangerous firsters in here. My top selection in here is going to be (4) Mo Dean who I anticipate a big race from. She has the connections and the pedigree to put on a show first time out. (6) Lady Lilly attracted Joel Rosario aboard and is the morning line favorite as a firster. The workouts look good coming in and I will include. (5) My Alluring Lady looks to be very fast and will seek the early lead, and Manny has been running extremely well. (10) Malibu Luna will be my last play here with Junior Alvarado aboard. The outside post should play well to this horse who has the Orb pedigree to shoot from the gate without bunching.
$4.00 WPS 4 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 2,4,6 w/ 2,4,5,6,8,9,10 Cost: $18.00
Race 7:
I have a strong opinion in this race and going to end the ticket on a single. Like they say, sometimes it be like that. I think that this is (5) Shiraz's race to take here. Bullet workout coming in and I always like a horse that is coming in to a race that won last time out at the same class. Luis Saez is my top jockey to ride aggressively and I think he has the horse to beat, which means he will forwardly place this horse. I like the time fractions that this horse has won at and I also love the redemption aspect of this with (5) Shiraz coming in behind (2) Dowse's Beach the last two times they met. (5) Shiraz looks to be in better form and finally ready to take down his foe.
$10.00 WPS 5 Cost: $30.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 8:
(6) GANDY DANCING tried winners for the first time in the Mike Lee losing to Captain Bombastic who ran lights out in the G1 Jerkens yesterday. Brown has him on schedule with four decent works at the Spa and should be ready to roll. If we get the 4:1 ML, run, no, sprint to the windows. Pletcher and Irad will attract lots of money here but, we haven’t seen (11) FORT WORTH in 16 months. Yes, it was a big maiden win but, something went wrong and his works appear average. We’ll include but you’re supposed bet against these short priced favorites in this situation. I’m a little interested in (8) HARRIS BAY. He’s been facing the top sprinters in this NYS 3yr division and comes in here with a 46 and change bullet on this surface. His maiden score last September would make this guy a very strong win candidate. Speaking of strong maiden breakers, (7) MOONACHE has just that on his resume and did it last year on this track.
$7.00 WPS 6 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 6,8 w/ 6,7,8,11 Cost: $18.00
Race 9:
(6) MORETTI will be short odds to take them all the way in this 14F Birdstone. He has a blowout win two back in the slop facing last years Belmont winner. Manage 2nd to Tacitus last time in the G2 Surburban so figures to be a handful today. I’ll try to beat him with the other Pletcher (2) YOU’RE TO BLAME. This guy was at the top of this division last spring then, something went wrong. Sidelined in the fall and slowly has been working him self back. He out worked his stable mate in their last two morning sessions and just may be his old self again. I’ll take a shot with Johnny V up. (3) EXPERT gets Irad for the first time and the way he’s riding, that may be enough. He was soundly beaten by Moretti but Ortiz typically moves up horses several lengths.
$7.00 WPS 2 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 2,6 w/ 2,3,6 Cost: $12.00
Race 10:
(1) STRIKING SPEED has a major advantage in this MCL to close the card. Draws the rail and has speed in this two turn event. The first turn comes quick, so he’ll likely save ground and potentially clear off. If that happens, it may be over when they reach the backstretch. The key will be what Manny will do on (3) BUONA FINA. If he applies pressure, the race will take on a different scene. That’s how I see it so I’ll focus on three closers to catch the them. (7) BUBBA CHUCK moves back to dirt and drops sharply. Big work last week. (8) DOUBLE ADVANTAGE has just that, Pletcher and Irad. And finally, the Union Rags colt (9) HEIGHT gets to stretch his legs and go 9F.
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