Saratoga 8/16 Pick 3 Plays
- Little Pete
- Aug 16, 2020
- 6 min read
We are looking to have a little Sunday funday at the Spa today and by looking to cash in a pair of pick 3 plays. I am coming in off of a cashed PK3 play as well as hitting my "Play of the Day" for over $100. We will look to carry in this momentum in to today's card. I will be focusing in on races 5-7, and Big Pete will be focusing in on races 8-10. We will also have our "Play of the Day" to put our money where our mouth is and let you know where we feel we can maximize a play. Make sure to subscribe to the newsletter to receive notification of new blog posts and weekly blog emails. GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R5: 3, 4, 6
R6: 2, 4, 5, 7
R7: 1, 5, 6, 9
Cost: $48.00
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R8: 2, 5, 6, 7
R9: 2, 3, 6
R10: 1, 6, 7, 9
Cost: $48.00
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 7:
I think there is money to be made in this race, as I am not in love with (6) La Hara in this position. I think that we try and beat with the horses I mentioned below and try and cash in on some good odds, since (6) La Hara is going to be bet down to even money.
$4.00 WPS 5 Cost: $12.00
$2.00 Ex 1,5,9 w/ 1,5,6,9 Cost: $18.00
Big Pete's"Play of the Day":
Race 3:
Rice has a pair in here that will play a major roll in the outcome. (3) Officer Hutchy will force the issue and assure a fast pace. She’ll ultimately get ticketed for speeding. Lezcano had first dibs on who to ride so we’ll land on (4) RUDE AWAKING to duplicate her March 8th run and collar the speeds late. She tried the grass and slightly better fillies last time and was not a factor. Now takes the necessary drop to make her competitive.
$10.00 WPS 4 Cost: $30.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 5:
This is a small six horse field in this 1 3/8 mile allowance claiming race on turf. Graham Motion has to powerful horses in this position and I think we will be smart in including both. (6) Nakamura is the morning line favorite with this big drop in class and will look to close on this weaker field. (4) He's No Lemon is going to be my top selection in here who gets Javier Castellano back aboard and I think will be much closer to the early pace than in previous races. My last play in here is going to be the longest shot on the board in (3) Counter Offer who is coming in with back to back wins. I am anticipating (2) Midnight Tea Time to shoot out of the gate to find the early lead and an aggressive ride from Gaffalione to be sitting right behind the pace. In a lot of these marathon races it looks like the jockeys are allergic to the lead because they want to have enough stamina left for a convincing stretch run. I think the position you want to be on the inner turf is in the stalking position right behind the pace, and then force the horses behind you to shoot 3-4 wide to try and beat you. I think Tyler will have his horse do just that and positioning will matter late.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 3,4,6 Cost: $12.00
Race 6:
I was actually going to make a stand this race and single the now scratched (6) Market Impact, so pretty bummed about that. Now the race is wide open to me and I am going to spread four horses deep in here. I am anticipating (7) Striking Speed to seek the early lead in this 6 1/2 furlong race and this horse may be looking to wire this field, so will include. (2) Lost in Rome has back to back seconds in closing fashion and this field looks vulnerable to late speed, so will also include. (4) Breithorn is exiting the same race right behind (2) Lost in Rome and hit the wire almost in a dead heat, will include in case his head has grown a bit. My last play will be (5) Seize the Day who has the aggressive riding Luis Saez and if this race turns in to a jockey's battle, then I need to include the best jockey in the race. This horse is also cutting back in distance and the past performances are saying to me this is what the horse wants to be doing; sprinting.
$1.00 Ex Box 2,4,5,7 Cost: $12.00
Race 7:
(6) La Hara looks to be a horse that many will be singling in their sequences, but I have my doubts on this one. Colonel Liam ran a triple beyer speed effort yesterday in a stakes race, so this horse is exiting a key race where he was out finished late; which means I have to include. That being said, I think the horse that will benefit most in this one is going to be the ascending (5) Winning Factor. This horse is jumping up in class and coming in winning two in a row in closing fashion. I think that there will be a fast pace to run in to from (3) Picasso and should open this race up for this closer. (1) Maximiliano should translate well to the grass and gets Irad aboard to navigate the ground saving trip. I am expecting a race closer to his first two career starts and is a player here. My last play is going to be (9) Duress who should love the extra distance to show off the late speed. I think Saez has the horse underneath him and he will know how to tactically place this horse to give him a chance to win this one.
$3.00 WPS 5 Cost: $9.00
$1.00 Ex 1,5,6,9 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 8:
Noda claimed (5) LETMETAKETHISCALL back in March and took his time to get her back in shape. Big breeze on the Spa dirt 8/2 should have this Mare on her toes today. Davis returns as she drops slightly to NYS NW3L Opt Claim runners. Her March 15th run would take this by open lengths. (6) BERTRANDA has already beaten many of these and will be short odds to do it again. I like others in here but she can’t be ignored. (2) FIERCE LADY would be heavy favorite if we ran this race last year. She looks like she may be back to that form though with a decent run being off 5 Months. They probably don’t catch her today.
$7.00 WPS 2 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 2,5 w/ 2,5,6,7 Cost: $18.00
Race 9:
(2) ENOLA GAY is getting a lot of the attention here and I can’t disagree. I prefer her G2 company vs the Lake Placid G2 company. The extra 1.5F should not be an issue and she gets Jose. I will, however, take a shot to beat her with (3) ANTOINETTE. She ran lights out to get 3rd against better in the G1 CC Oaks and proved she can handle the turf. I think she takes a step forward here and will offer the favorite a challenge late. The unknown is (6) RICETTA as she makes her US debut. She has the right connections to prepare for this. The only question is does she have the ability. We’ll include as the others don’t scare me.
$7.00 WPS 3 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 2,3 w/ 2,3,6 Cost: $12.00
Race 10:
With a few speeds signed on, I can’t resist Irad sticking around on (7) DANGEROUS EDGE in the nightcap. They closed well to get 3rd last time facing better. Now cuts back to 6F and a hot pace will set him up nicely. Noda is having a career meet so we’ll include (6) INK SPLOTZ incase some of the jocks let him go early. Saez will try to steal this so if he gets away at the break, they may not catch him. I’ll try to get longshot (1) LIAM’S FIRE into the exacta. He showed promise last time just missing 2nd. Maybe he can do it again. (9) BIG BOY MO moves back in against fellow NY Breds. He’ll likely follow right behind Dangerous Edge who will get first jump on Mo. He’ll take a stab at 2nd as well.
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