Saratoga 8/14 Pick 3 Plays
- Little Pete
- Aug 14, 2020
- 6 min read
We have ourselves a ten race card today at Saratoga; which is headlined by the Perfect Sting in the fourth. I made a promise to myself last night to be better and I really do not want to disappoint myself. I also came to the conclusion that I am rattled when the card starts with steeple races, that is the reason for my slow start this week. Big Pete has gone 5 of 6 (Should be 6 for 6) and looks to carry his momentum in to today. I will be focusing in on races 5-7, and Big Pete will be focusing in on races 8-10. We will also have our "Pick of the Day" plays to let you know where we see value on the card and how we would play. Make sure to subscribe to the newsletter to receive notification of new blog posts and a weekly blog email. GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R5: 4, 5, 7, 9
R6: 3, 4, 6
R7: 1, 3, 7, 8
Cost: $48.00
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R8: 3, 5, 6
R9: 3, 4, 6
R10: 8, 9, 10, 11
Cost: $36.00
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 1:
I woke up this morning feeling dangerous and going to take a price in the first race today. I think that the favorites in here are extremely vulnerable and going to try and beat with (6) Tuck In. This horse is getting sent out to dirt for the first time in her short career and I think she will handle it well. Kendrick will have direction to make sure this horse breaks well from the gate to be sitting behind the early pace of (1) Spanish Peaks. I think we can mess around with this horse in some exacta plays to try and cash in on some tickets.
$3.00 WPS 6 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,6 w/ 1,5,6,7 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 5:
I’ll steal a little of Lil Pete’s thunder and use one of his races as me Best bet. (9) SIR CHUBBY has spent his career going long until last time out. He found out that he has some kick in him when they shorten him up. The connections give him another 5.5F to tackle and they invite Jose for the ride. His last run stacks up very well with this group and should get some early speed to come and get.
$10.00 WPS 9 Cost: $30.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 5:
We will get through the first leg of this one going four deep. I am anticipating an aggressive ride from Tyler Gaffalione in this one aboard (4) New Frontier to find the early lead. I think this horse will be able to save ground and be able to save some energy to have a head start down the stretch by being in the lead. (9) Sir Chubby will also be getting an aggressive ride from Jose Ortiz in this one. This horse has had some tough trips and seems to always be playing from behind, but showing good closing effort. I think with a more aggressive ride early in this sprint will play favorably for this horse and he could get it done. (5) Its a Wrap will be in the early action as well to be sitting back and waiting to shoot out 3 wide to have a convincing stretch drive. My last play will be the Klaravich/Brown/Castellano combination who are in this claiming race on the (7) Ahead of Plan. This combo won the finale yesterday and have a class dropper in here, so will make my ticket.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 4,5,9 w/ 4,5,7,9 Cost: $18.00
Race 6:
I am anticipating a big run from (3) Malibu Pro in this one. I like Dylan Davis getting aboard who has been maximizing his mounts recently and will most likely look to be aggressive in this one. This horse should shoot from the gate to try and find the early lead being the inside post. I also like (6) Life in Shambles to be sitting behind the early speed and have the most energy late to challenge for this one. My last play is going to be (4) ColtandMississippi who should enjoy a fast early pace and I like Tyler Gaffalione getting the mount again this time out. I think (1A) Clench is going to tire out late and be vulnerable to pass, so going to exclude. (5) Shamrocked is taking a significant class drop here, but has been on the shelf for almost six months and the workouts are screaming to me that this horse needs a tune up, so will also exclude.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$1.00 Ex 3,4,6 w/ 1,3,4,5,6 Cost: $12.00
Race 7:
(3) Fig Jelly is the horse to beat in this one and if he runs to the beyer speeds that he has shown in the last 7 races out, then this is the winner. That being said, I will not land on a single in a claiming race; anything can play out here. The entries in here, (1/1A), are both going to shoot to the early lead in this one and that is the place to be in this 5 1/2 furlong sprint on grass. My two closers in here are going to be (7) Variant Perception and (8) Bourbon Currency. I think that these two horses who are exiting the same race last time out will be trying to time a late charge down the stretch and I like both on my ticket to close this one out.
$3.00 WPS 8 Cost: $9.00
$1.00 Ex Box 1,3,7,8 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 8:
(4) TALE OF THE UNION looked good beating NW1X last time now tries NW2X state breds. Has the connections in his corner to pull it off but we’ll try to beat him. (5) LEAKY CUP is the one I want. Both Spa trips have produced his best efforts to date. Jr will want the lead or sit right off it as there are not many that will go. Clean break and this guy will prove hard to pass through the stretch. (7) KAZMANIA beat Cup twice but lost to him last time. The presence of Irad may be the difference today to turn the table on that one. We’ll lean on these three to get this late Pk3 off and running.
$7.00 WPS 5 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 5,7 w/ 4,5,7 Cost: $12.00
Race 9:
There are three in here that we’ll use and start with the Brown runner (1A) VALUE ENGINEERING He just missed last time against similar and will be short odds to get it done here. The shorter distance may work in is favor so he’s a must use. I can’t resist putting a few dollars on (2) ARGONNE. He rolled through conditions last year rattling off three in a roll. Then tried G2 company before being put on the shelf. A public workout last time should have this guy ready to roll for Bond and Saez. I’m all in with this one. (8) CURRENT has a few races in his pp’s that makes him competitive here. He hasn’t seen the winners circle in a while so we can’t pull this trigger on top but he certainly can make it into the exacta.
$7.00 WPS 2 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 1,2 w/ 1,2,7,8 Cost: $18.00
Race 10:
I’ll lean heavy on the two Point of Entry runners. (10) UNICORN SALLY tried MSW runners in her last two and now takes the class drop against these MCL 40K’s. That should make all the difference. Castallano stays and the 1M seems just right. (9) RUNNING ON EMPTY exits the same race as Sally but, that was her first race in over a year. She was a non-threatening 10th but the number came back much higher than most of the other runners have posted. She most likely needed that race and should offer a challenge this time out. (8) LUCKY LATKES went off the favorite last time and beat many of these when she got 3rd. Look for a similar run which should be good enough to hit the board. (11) SARATOGA LULLABY gets to stretch her legs after two sprint attempts Saez sticks around for the night cap on this one so he must see something there.
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