Preakness & Belmont 5/15 Plays
- Little Pete
- May 15, 2021
- 7 min read
Happy Preakness Day! We are going to split our attention today between Pimlico and Belmont on this action packed day of racing. I am going to be focused solely on the racing in Maryland and Big Pete will provide the New York plays. I am going to attack two pick 3 plays that cover the pick 6 sequence into the Preakness (Races 8-13). Big Pete will be focused on the late pick 3 (Races 9-11) and have a "Play of the Day" on a race on the card he would like to try and maximize the bankroll. We appreciate you taking a look at the write-up and hope we can make it a profitable day. GOOD LUCK.
Pimlico
Little Pete's $0.50 Spot Pick 3:
R8: 3, 7, 8
R9: 2, 5, 7, 8
R10: 2, 4, 12, 13
Cost: $24.00
Little Pete's $0.50 PREAKNESS Pick 3:
R11: 3, 5, 8, 11
R12: 3, 5, 8
R13: 5, 6, 9, 10
Cost: $24.00
Belmont
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R9: 4, 6, 10
R10: 5, 6, 9, 10
R11: 2, 4, 7, 10
Cost: $ 48.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Course: Belmont
Race 3:
I like the cut back to 6F for (6) MATTY’S EXPRESS. She’s been going long her whole career. She got beat in her last two by SanctuaryCity who returned to win last week. Two strong bullets should have her ready to go today.
$ 7.00 WPS 6 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 6 w/ 2, 7 Cost $ 14.00
Course: Belmont
Race 4:
Cheap claimers go at it and I can’t knock the favorite (4) STORM ADVISORY. I’ll concede to this 9yr old gelding and look for some value underneath. (2) Sneakiness has fallen on hard times recently and may need the class relief he gets today. (6) Popizar has been busy in the claim department and finds an easier field to come get late. A decent price for the exacta.
$ 10.00 Exacta 4 w/ 2, 6 Cost $ 20.00
Preakness Selection:
Of the Baffert runners, I prefer (10) CONCERT TOUR. He skipped the Derby and has been working well in the AM. Money Mike jumps on as this Street Sense won’t mind the extra distance. I’ll also use (5) MIDNIGHT BOURBON on top. He likes to be on or near the lead and had no chance in the Derby after his bad start. Look for him to get a better start with shorter field. Irad takes the controls for this improving colt. Both (3) Medina Spirit and (8) Unbridled Honer can round out the exacta.
$ 7.00 WPS 5 Cost $ 21.00
$ 5.00 Exacta 5, 10 w/ 3, 5, 8, 10 Cost $ 30.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 8:
Big scratch with the (2) Outadore, so had to reassess quick. The horse I most like to take this one is (3) Kasim I think that Saez will be aggressive from the go with the preferable post position and find a nice rail spot to save ground around the turn. I think this horse will be poised well late to run down the horses in the front and hit the wire first. I also think (8) T D Dance will be running a similar style race in here to find a nice position early with the early speed the horse possesses and wait for the opportunity come stretch drive to fly towards the wire; I will be including this horse as well. My last play will be a horse I am expecting a big run out of coming into this one in (7) Charles Chrome. I do not love the post position, but this horse has shown the ability to make up ground quickly and will need to improve this time out but I think will be ready for the big lights.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 3,7,8 Cost: $12.00
Race 9:
Speed kills in this one and this race has plenty of it. I will firstly be including the undefeated (5) Chub Wagon who is the logical play here on paper. This horse has never given up the lead in her five career starts and will be a tough catch in this one. (2) Casual is a horse I like to have a nice rail position around the turn and be able to eat up ground late. (8) French Empire is going to be my top pick in here as I see this horse being able to make a big run come stretch drive and catch (5) Chub Wagon late. Last play will be (7) Call on Mischief who I think will be the horse that would benefit the most if there is an early pace battle up front. I expect Saez to sit behind the speed horses and wait the opportunity to run them down with a well timed lane run.
$3.00 WPS 8 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 2,8 w/ 2,5,7,8 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 5,7 w/ 2,5,7,8 Cost: $6.00
Race 10:
I am playing this race with two horses I think will be 1-2 from the start and then two horses I expect to run at them late down the stretch in this sprint. (2) The Connector and (4) The Critical Way should be the two horses with the nice post position to run out of the gate and find the early lead. Both of these horses look to be in good form and may be able to run on with this one. (12) So Street and (13) Completed Pass are the two horses to the outside that I like to be shooting from the gate to stalk the lead and fan out wide to compete for this one late. This one should be an exciting one and feel good about including these four horses to get the ticket home.
$3.00 WPS 2 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 2,4 w/ 2,4,12,13 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 12,13 w/ 2,4,12,13 Cost: $6.00
Little Pete's PREAKNESS Pick 3:
Race 11:
A tough first leg to the pick 3 in here, so going to have to go four deep in here. (3) Mucho has a nice post position and the speed early to find a rail position which I think benefits this horse come stretch drive. I expect Jose Ortiz to have a nice run at the wire late. (5) Strike Power has the speed to wire this field and I expect this horse to not mess around and find the lead and challenge others to catch late. (8) Special Reserve is also going to be aggressive from the gate and I trust Irad to work out a winning trip in here, so a must play for me. (11) Seven Nation Army is my last play who should be stalking the early pace and with a fanned out stretch drive could compete late to win this one.
$3.00 WPS 8 Cost: $9.00 $2.00 Ex 8,11 w/ 3,5,8,11 Cost: $12.00 $1.00 Ex 3,5 w/ 3,5,8,11 Cost: $6.00
Race 12:
The two Chad Brown horses look to be too good in here for me and really like the odds on (3) Kuramata. I think the logical play is to play these two horses and hope we can get some favorable odds in here. With that said, I do like the outside horse in (8) Bye Bye Melvin. Johnny V will be aggressive from the gate and most likely will find the early lead. We saw what he does when he puts a horse on the lead which is not give it up. This horse could be poised late to run on with this one and will be my only other horse to include outside of Chad Brown.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 3,5,8 Cost: $12.00
Race 13:
I am going to try and beat (3) Medina Spirit in the Preakness with four others. The other Baffert looks good in here and we should expect this horse to be forwardly placed and have a say late as to who wins this one. I also like (5) Midnight Bourbon in here as this horse is trending downwards on odds and looks poised to run a big one in here. The two horses that I like at a price are (6) Rombauer who is ascending at the moment and will be able to handle the distance. I do not expect (3) Medina Spirit to be given a breather in this one and will open up a late run and this horse is going to be charging late. (9) Risk Taking had a bobble at the gate last time out which greatly affected his run, but the two races before were very good. I think this horse is also ascending and worth investing in for this one.
$3.00 WPS 9 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 9,10 w/ 5,6,9,10 Cost: 12.00
$1.00 Ex 5,6 w/ 5,6,9,10 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 9:
(10) DARK STORM has improved over the last three races. Weaver takes a confident jump up the claiming ranks with this gelding. They went to far two back, then ran his best to date last time closing at this 1M distance. Lezcano takes over for the hot barn. I’ll take (6) MUBARMAJ and Pletcher here. He returned off a short rest to score last time and now drops slightly. He is two for two on Big Sandy and looks strong today. (4) MUSICAL AMERICA may be the lone speed which is always dangerous. They couldn’t hold on in his last two but drops a little.
$ 7.00 WPS 6 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 6, 10 w/ 2, 4, 6, 10 Cost $ 18.00
Race 10:
We’ll use the two outside runners on top. (9) STAR DEVINE was very impressive winning her debut and would be no surprise to Re-Pete. Her first time against winners is the only knock. I’ll try to bet her with (10) INVINCIBLE GAL. She has been battling some good fillies in all her starts and may have found the right field. She’s making her 2021 debut but Graham can have them ready. She figures to get a decent set up to come late. (6) TOBYS HEART will draw a lot of attention. She’s better sprinting and now has to tackle this quirky 7F distance. The one turn helps. (5) HIT THE WOAH goes out for Clement who’s been winning a lot lately. Jr has some of those too..
$ 7.00 WPS 10 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 9, 10 w/ 5,6, 9, 10 Cost $ 18.00
Race 11:
I can’t separate the four main rivals in this finale. (4) GIRAMONTE and (10) TEMPESTA look the same on paper as both will likely stalk and come late. Both trainers have yet to win so we’ll side with the other two. Atras has (2) TRIPLE AMERICANO who will try turf and drop in for a tag. Carmouche staying is also a good sign. (7) BOOM BOOM KABOOM goes out for the Weaver barn as they heat up. Cancel almost got there last time and may try to get a little closer to the pace today.
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