Pete's Picks Saratoga 9/4 Plays
- Little Pete
- Sep 4, 2021
- 6 min read
The last Saturday at the Spa and we have a stacked card. We have some great weather in the forecast and some big time races. I will be taking down the early double (Races 1 & 2) and a spot pick 3 that covers the first 3 races of the pick 6 (Races 7-9). Big Pete will have some of his "Plays of the Day" and hit the late pick 3 (Races 10-12). We appreciate you taking a look at this write-up and GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $ 2.00 Early Double:
R1: 5, 8, 9
R2: 2, 4, 8
Cost: $18.00
Little Pete's $ 1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R7: 2, 4, 8, 9
R8: 1, 4, 5, 6
R9: 1, 3, 7, 10
Cost: $60.00
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R10: 1, 6, 9, 10
R11: 3, 4, 6
R12: 1, 4, 5
Cost: $ 36.00
Little Pete's $2.00 Early Double:
Race 1:
(5) War Smoke had an impressive debut with a strong close off the lead and Irad is up aboard this time out again. This horse will be tough to catch late with a race under his belt. (9) Sheriff Bianco was the beaten favorite in that same race as (5) War Smoke and will be sent to the lead. This horse dueled throughout and I don't see a ton of speed in here threatening this horse early. This could mean a more sustained run late. (8) B C Glory Days had a bad break on the previous race where he made up ground late on grass. I think Luis Saez gives this horse the bump he needs to be on the lead and make it interesting late.
$3.00 WPS 9 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 5,8,9 Cost: $12.00
Race 2:
(2) Supreme Aura is coming in strong winning the previous two and fresh off the claim. Manny has the post position and should be able to navigate a ground saving trip throughout in here. (4) Roaming Union is a horse I really like in here to be right behind the pace and being in great form. Rosario is taking the mount again this time out and we should get a relatively nice price on this horse. (8) Ashaar has two horses in the first two races that I really like. He is going to be a bully from the outside and seek the lead and Pletcher horses rarely give that up.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 2,4,8 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 3:
We’ll lean heavy on (6) CODY’S WISH to turn the table on Pipeline. Both went 9F when they met and it wasn’t the best trip for Cody. The cut back favors Cody, IMO, and we’ll try to beat Pipeline for 2nd.
(1) North Carolina switches to dirt after a strong bullet and (2) Waxman is bred to be a good one I’m just hoping he needs one.
$ 10.00 Exacta 6 w/ 1, 2 Cost $ 20.00
We’ll also use Cody’s Wish in R3 and try to crash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
Both (7) Risky Mischief and (9) Meet The Beauty look solid in the 4th
$ 7.00 Double 6 w/ 7, 9 Cost $ 14.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 5:
The favorite figures to be a handful in this short field Prioress but, (2) EDIE MEENY MINY MO looks fast. She’s 2 for 2 at this 6F distance and wanted no part of the two turn Oaks at Monmouth. She ships in with Espinoza making the trip as well and cuts back to her preferred distance. The instructions will be clear. Go and never look back.
(5) Amendment Nineteen and favorite (6) Souper Sensational will try to reel her in late.
$ 10.00 Exacta 2 w/ 5, 6 Cost $ 20.00
We’ll also use Edie Meeny Miny Mo in R5 and try to crash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
Both (9) Ohtwoohthreefive and (10) Beloved Warrior look solid in the 6th
$ 7.00 Double 2 w/ 9, 10 Cost $ 14.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 7:
(4) Misbehaved is a must play in here and my top pick. The Pletcher/Saez combo on a first time starter in open company is just too enticing. This horse will be on the lead and is bred to handle the dirt well. I trust Saez to send this horse come stretch drive and win this one. With that said, it still is a bunch of inexperienced horses so I will be spreading. (2) Classic Causeway has been training lights out and a favorable post position. This horse should be able to find the rail early and that will pay off late with Jose Ortiz getting the mount. (8) Galt is going to be speed from the gate and allow the race come to him. Rosario is going to be positioned well throughout and come stretch drive we should expect this horse to have a second gear. (9) Tiz Eternal from the Tagg barn just gives the Tiz the Law vibes and going to include for that angle. This horse is facing open company first time out and I take that as a major plus.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 2,4 w/ 2,4,8,9 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 8,9 w/ 2,4,8,9 Cost: $6.00
Race 8:
Short field but a really tough race for me to narrow it down. I really like (1) Public Sector (As will most) to be set up well late to close strongly against a fast early pace. I will be including (4) Never Surprised in case this horse isn't challenged early on the lead and able to dictate fractions. That would give this horse a head start come stretch drive and I trust Saez to close. (5) Founder is the other Brown runner in here who will be closing extremely strong and should be able to sit behind the pace as her stablemate will and find the lane to run in. My last play is (6) Mohs who is coming in here running pretty well in NJ and needs to take a step up in here and I trust Gaffalione on grass to find the lane. This horse could be a surprising horse late.
$2.00 Ex 1,6 w/ 1,4,5,6 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 4,5 w/ 1,4,5,6 Cost: $6.00
Race 9:
(1A) Cara's Dreamer is a great closer in here and should have a decent pace to run into. (3) Lookin to Fly is bumping up in class and getting Saez aboard. This horse will be right behind the pace and wait for the lane to open up to close strongly. (7) Freedom Machine is a horse I like to be able to make up a ton of ground late and Lezcano will be aggressive early to find the path this horse needs to win. (10) English Breeze will break strongly and then stalk throughout. Manny will wait to send this horse late until the time is right.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 3,10 w/ 1,3,7,10 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 1,7 w/ 1,3,7,10 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 10:
(1) TUGGLE has had a difficult time staying on the track. Only two races last year and one in June of 2021. It’s worth noting that all three of those efforts he came in second. So he comes off the layoffs and produces. I think the extra distance will help and Irad returns. I like both Brown runners in this spot. (10) HOMETOWN likes to stalk and come late. With enough speed signed on, he’s the main danger to collar and get to the wire first. (9) CROWDED TRADE comes from off the pace with a big run from the back. He’s a little more vulnerable to the pace but if things heat up early, he’ll get there. (6) OLYMPIAD is the new shooter with upside. Adds L1 and is a Speightstown sprinting at the Spa. Enough said there.
$ 7.00 WPS 10 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 1, 10 w/ 1, 6, 9, 10 Cost $ 20.00
Race 11:
We have to start with (3) WAR LIKE GODDESS as she has been dominate this year and seems to improve each time out. The only concern would be if the 11F is too SHORT?? for her. After yesterday’s finale, I can’t leave Brown off the ticket as he usually fires when on the grass. (4) MY SISTER NAT tried to get first jump on the Goddess in the Glens Falls but couldn’t hold her off. She’ll use the same tactic here as it’s a little shorter. The new shooter is (6) GREAT ISLAND. She’s hit the board in all seven starts and has spent time with Brown here as she continues to move East to face the big girls today.
$ 7.00 WPS 6 Cost $ 21.00
$ 5.00 Ex 3, 6 w/ 3, 4, 6 Cost $ 20.00
Race 12:
Only six showed up for the 1 million today. I was going to enter but 10F may be just a tad too far for me. Not so (1) FORZA DI ORO. Mott has him in a grove right now as his 2021 debut was his best yet. He does tackle better animals today but this may have come up short of quality for a typical G1. (4) HAPPY SAVOR may have been a little short second time off the layoff when Max beat him. Could have been the slop or the wide trip, but he didn’t look like the Happy guy that he usually is. I think we see the 2020 version today and he runs his race for Pletcher. Cox sends out (5) NIGHT OPS after four straight 2nd place finishes. His last one was against Art Collector who would be dangerous in here today. It would be no surprise to see this guy show up big today
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