Pete's Picks Saratoga 8/21 Plays - Alabama Stakes Day!
- Little Pete
- Aug 21, 2021
- 8 min read
We have a three Stakes day at the Spa which is headlined by the Gr.1 Alabama in the 10th. We are going to cover the entire 11 race card today and be betting mobile this weekend. I will be focused on taking down the early double (Races 1 & 2) to get the day started and a spot pick 3 that starts the pick 6 (Races 6-8). Big Pete will have a couple of his "Plays of the Days" and close the card with the late pick 3 that covers the Gr.2 Lake Placid and the Gr.1 Alabama (Races 9-11). We really appreciate you taking a look at this write-up and hope we can make it a winning day at the SPA. GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $ 2.00 Early Double:
R1: 1, 2, 6, 7
R2: 1, 2, 4
Cost: $24.00
Little Pete's $ 1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R6: 1, 7, 10, 11
R7: 2, 4, 5, 9
R8: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $48.00
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R9: 2, 4, 5, 6
R10: 4, 5, 6
R11: 2, 6, 12
Cost: $ 36.00
Little Pete's $2.00 Early Double:
Race 1:
(1/1A) from the Pletcher barn are intimidating and I am leaning on Luis Saez with (1A) Major General to run down the field late in here. (2) Fan The Fire is going to have an improved effort in this one and the post position is favorable for this horse. I expect Gaffalione to be able to find a nice rail position early and have more stamina late to make it interesting down the stretch. (6) Triple Elvis is a Chad Brown Firster who just keeps putting up bullet workouts and Irad looks to have a ton of speed. Chad Brown horses can handle further distances, so expcet this horse to find the lead and sustain a big run. My last play will be (7) Bourbon Heist who I think will come down from the morning line 8/1. This horse closed well at a price last time out and continues to show improvements in workouts, so I think this horse should be one of the strongest late and I trust Castellano to time a nice run.
$3.00 WPS 2 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,2 w/ 1,2,6,7 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 6,7 w/ 1,2,6,7 Cost: $6.00
Race 2:
(2) Zainalarab is a must play for me in here and going to be a tough horse come stretch drive. I am expecting speed in here early which plays into this horses strength. Outside of that I am going to go with closing horses at a price. (1) Halo City is training well and gets the inside post on a fast track. Ricardo Santana, Jr. is going to put this horse on the rail and find a position towards the lead. I think this horse is in good enough form to draft the leaders and have enough left to make it interesting late. (4) Portilla is a horse I really like in here to be able to sit behind the lead as well and trusting the leading rider at the meet to time a nice stretch drive. Luis Saez is on fire and this horse looks to be in good form coming into this one.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$3.00 Ex Box 1,2,4 Cost: $18.00
BONUS RACE:
Race 3:
The two favorites look solid in here and I would lean on (2) Lead Guitar in here to be able to sit behind the pace and outkick the speed to his inside. The horse I am going to give a try in here is (5) Pacific Gail switching to grass in here. This horse should have the speed translate over and I trust Johnny V to put this horse in the action early and be able to bully horses late. The way this race should set up is the trip will win the race and I will go with the Hall of Famer to get this one.
$5.00 WPS 5 Cost: $15.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 4:
(11) TANGERINE DREAM made her debut here last year and managed a 3rd place finish. Something went wrong next time out and then used a turf sprint as a public workout before going on the shelf. Now she’s back and is training well. The drop is a little scary but with Saez taking the call and L1 being added, this looks to be her coming out party.
We’ll use her on top with (2) Maria’s Gift, (5) Bonana Fanna Foe and (7) Know It All Red underneath.
$ 10.00 Exacta 11 w/ 2, 5, 7 Cost $ 30.00
We’ll also use Tangerine Dream in R4 and try to crash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
Both (6) Too Early and (8) Good Old Boy look solid in the 5th
$ 7.00 Double 11 w/ 6, 8 Cost $ 14.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 5:
Even though we’re off the turf for this, I still like the turf runner (8) GOOD OLD BOY to run big on the dirt. He’s a Freud and he’s fresh off the Diodoro claim. Both of his August workouts jump off the page as it looks like he’s ready to roll today.
We’ll use (6) Too Early and (9) Six Percent underneath.
$ 7.00 WPS 8 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 8 w/ 6, 9 Cost $ 14.00
We’ll also use (8) Good Old Boy in R5 and try to crash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
Both (1) Betsy Blue and (10) Beautiful Karen look solid in the 6th
$ 10.00 Double 8 w/ 1, 10 Cost $ 20.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 6:
We are off the turf in this one and the MTOs are looking pretty good in here. (1) Betsy Blue to the inside has the speed and the post position. I think this horse will be able to navigate to the front under Irad and out battle (5) Big Q in here (Who I am leaving off the ticket). My top pick in here is a late closing (7) The Important One who had an impressive start last time out on dirt and the track should be fast by post time. This horse should be able to save ground throughout in this one and wait for the lane to open up to shoot to the wire. (10) Beautiful Karen draws in as the other Linda Rice horse and looks to be on the lead in here as well. This race will be a race of positioning and I like this horse towards the front. My last play will be (11) Fair Regis who just put together some impressive workouts and if there is any moisture in the ground then I love this horse even more. Jose Ortiz is getting the mount which is a big bump in here.
$3.00 WPS 7 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,11 w/ 1,7,10,11 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 7,10 w/ 1,7,10,11 Cost: $6.00
Race 7:
Both of the Pletcher horses warrant a play from me with (2) My PRankster and (5) Bellinger. Both of these horses have impressive workouts coming in and lineage. I am leaning towards (5) Bellinger in here if I had to pick one of them. (9) Cogburn is a really interesting horse in here and my top pick. Santana, Jr/Asmussen have another 2 year old that looks geared up to win first time out. This horse has put some really impressive workouts out consistently. My last play will be (4) Skate to Heaven who I like from the Diodoro barn in here to run a big race late. His two year old crop has been impressive to date and shows some late run in their races. I think this horse could be an interesting stretch drive horse at a price.
$3.00 WPS 9 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 5,9 w/ 2,4,5,9 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 2,4 w/ 2,4,5,9 Cost: $6.00
Race 8:
(4) Identify Politics is the must play horse in here, but I do not think worth a single. This horse gets the class relief needed and should be the fastest horse late under Irad Ortiz. (5) Charlie Five O is a really interesting horse in here for me who is taking on some of the best that he has faced, but the impressive wire to wire win last time out, plus the couple of bullet workouts coming in makes me believe that he is up for the challenge. My last play is going to be a late closing (6) El Sobreviviente who gets Luis Saez aboard in here and had a nice workout leading in. There should be a bit of speed to the inside so I am anticipating Saez finding the rail fast. These horses are not going to be able to handle blistering early fractions and I think Saez feasts late.
$3.00 Ex Box 4,5,6 Cost: $18.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 9:
We are on the turf for the G2 Lake Placid. (6) SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR doesn’t seem to like distance so the cut back to 8.5F should workout for her. She has faced slightly better and she gets a new rider in Santana today. (4) RUNAWAY RUMOUR’s running style looks similar to her dad. She was too far back in the Lake George and couldn’t gain on the leaders. I like the switch to Lezcano as he will be aggressive early to get her in position to make a winning move late. (2) TECHICAL ANALYSIS is consistent and will likely show up again today. She got the jump on the deep closers last time and it paid off. It wouldn’t surprise me if Jose decides to put her on or close to the lead. (5) LOVESTRUCK is the one I’ll put on top. She’s lightly raced and Mott didn’t tighten all the screws in her recent return off a 7 month vacation. The 8/3 bullet makes this gal dangerous as she looks to be back in shape. Johnny V takes the mount.
$ 7.00 WPS 5 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 4, 5 w/ 2, 4, 5, 6 Cost $ 18.00
Race 10:
I’m guessing (6) MALATHAAT will go back to the stalking position for this as the aggressive move early in the Oaks may have cost her. I don’t blame them, it just didn’t workout. She’ll be a handful but I like the new face. (5) PLAYED HARD is fast and Saez will likely use that to there advantage. The farther the better for this filly so if Luis can catch a breath down the backstretch, she’ll be tough to reel in. (4) MARACUJA proved she’s a player in this division in the Oaks. I’m not yet convinced she’s at the top of this division but today will answer a lot of questions. (7) ARMY WIFE is quietly getting good. She has improved in every start and her last two should set her up to face the big girls today. The distance will be her friend as she can run all day.
$ 7.00 WPS 5 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 5, 6 w/ 4, 5, 6, 7 Cost $ 18.00
Race 11:
The race may have fallen right into (12) PERFECT GRACE’s lap coming off the grass. She’s settled for 2nd in all three starts and now faces turf runners on the dirt. It’s now or never for this gal so we’ll use defensively and try to beat her. Be careful as More Moonshine, who dusted her last race, was a major bust yesterday. (6) INGRESS moves to the dirt and breeding suggest that she’ll be fine. She faced some good fillies in her debut and was gaining on them late. She’s training well and Mott usually does well with a race under their belt. (2) EPONA BAY is an American Pharoah and they can handle any surface. Johnny V sticking around for race 11 is a good sign. This gal could be a runner.
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