Pete's Picks Saratoga 7/29 Plays
- Little Pete
- Jul 29, 2021
- 6 min read
Thursday racing in Saratoga and it looks like we may have some weather in the forecast. We are writing this blog the day before, so be aware of that (day job). We are going to look to cover 90% or more of this card (Depends on if Big Pete can handle the 3rd & 4th). I will be taking down the early double and a spot pick 3 which covers the first three legs of the pick 6 sequence (Races 5-7). Big Pete will have two "Plays of the Day" and the late pick 3 (Races 8-10). We appreciate you taking a look at this write-up and GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $ 2.00 Early Double:
R1: 4, 7, 8
R2: 1, 3, 7, 9 Cost: 24.00
Little Pete's $ 1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R5: 5, 6, 7, 12
R6: 1, 3, 5, 10
R7: 3, 9 Cost: $ 32.00
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R8: 1, 4, 8
R9: 4, 7, 8
R10: 7, 11, 15 Cost: $ 27.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 3:
NW3L go at it on the turf. The two inside runners will attract a lot of the money with the Ortiz bros aboard. I think (10) RECKLESS SPIRIT is sitting on a big run today. The switch to the more aggressive Gaff will help after Spirit tried to close in from far back before hanging a little. They might be a little closer today and get first jump on the closers. Bond has two wins and two 3rd place finishes in only six starts. His barn is clicking which makes this 6:1 ML ge;ding very attractive.
$ 7.00 WPS 10 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 10 w/ 1, 2 Cost $ 14.00
We’ll also use (10) Reckless Spirit in R3 and try to crash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
We’ll use (1) Cause Of Action and (8) The Queens Jules in the 4th.
$ 7.00 Double 10 w/ 1, 8 Cost $ 14.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 4:
Bottom claimers are on display with a sprint on the dirt. (8) THE QUEENS JULES drops to this level for the first time. He's been running well at Belmont so the drop is a little concerning. However, this is Saratoga and they may be just looking for a win for bragging rights so they landed here. I can't blame them so I'll take the short price and try to sneak long shots (2) Mr Shortandsimple and (3) The Great Dansky underneath. They both have speed so maybe one of them can shake loose and hang on for 2nd.
$ 7.00 WPS 8 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 8 w/ 2, 3 Cost $ 14.00
Little Pete's $2.00 Early Double:
Race 1:
Two horses that make logical sense are (4) JohnnyPump and (7) Mo Heat who each may be just too good against this field. I think both will link up in a battle in here and they just may get too far away from the field to catch. The outsider I like is (8) Value Chain switching surfaces and Irad choosing to stick around. I think this horse has the most upside in here and going to play as a wild card.
$3.00 Ex Box 4,7,8 Cost: $18.00
Race 2:
(1) Cold Hard Cash to the inside should be able to find a nice rail position throughout and this horse has shown great ability since the surface switch to grass. (3) Quiet Out East is a horse I really like to come in here and make a splash. This horse has the closing ability I like and Dylan Davis will be aggressive in here and use the post position to his advantage. (7) Straw Into Gold is a must play with the connections and just may be too good in here; the workout leading in does worry me a bit. (9) Call Me Harry will be my last play stretching out and Rosario getting the mount. This horse has come on late in almost every race and I think the extra distance will be a big boost late down the stretch.
$3.00 WPS 1 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,7 w/ 1,3,7,9 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 3,9 w/ 1,3,7,9 Cost: $6.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 5:
(7) ShinJuku will be my top pick in here. This horse is getting the class relief he needs to break his maiden. I think Manny is aggressive early and able to navigate a nice trip in here to take it. . (6) Ravizzol is switching surfaces and picking up Saez and I like both for this horse. The workout leading in is very good and we should expect Luis to find the perfect trip to compete throughout in this one. My last play will be the Donk firster in (5) Crossing Verazanno who is my wild card. This horse has been consistently training and I think will show some good late speed against a beatable field first time out. (12) Dutchman Forever likes to come from way back. If the rest of them struggle the last 1/8 of a mile, this guy can pass them all.
$3.00 WPS 7 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 6,7 w/ 5,6,7,12 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 5,12 w/ 5,6,7,12 Cost: $6.00
Race 6:
The (1/1A) entry should be included for whichever one stays. They have experience against the field and that really matters in these maiden races. (3) Daisy Bee is going to be my top pick in here with fantastic workouts coming in and a nice post position. Castellano should be able to find a nice rail position and I am going to trust him to time a nice run late. (5) Her World is shipped in from Ireland and those horses on grass just run better. The Wesley Ward horse will show speed throughout and the combo loves winning races. (10) Consumer Spending is the Chad Brown angle in here from the outside. This horse doesn't jump off the page, but the horse is going to run strong late.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,3 w/ 1,3,5,10 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 5,10 w/ 1,3,5,10 Cost: $6.00
Race 7:
I wanted to single the (3) Hieroglyphics, but I will be including (9) Troubling Moon for coverage. I think Luis will find the lead on (3) Hieroglyphics and not look back. This is the perfect horse for the jockey and I do not see a foe in here who can compete with the speed. The only reason I will be including (9) Troubling Moon is in case this horse gets ambushed by a horse early to cause some fast fractions and this horse comes running strong late. SABOTAGE PLAY
$10.00 WIN 3 Cost: $10.00
$6.00 Ex 3 w/ 9 Cost: $6.00
$3.00 Ex 9 w/ 3 Cost: $3.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 8:
(1A) MOTIVATED SELLER tried G1 runners out West but it didn't work out. She heads back home where she's been dominating her rivals. She may be the stronger half but I'll take (1) SECONDARY MARKET as a backup. She has a win on this track and that was with Javier. (4) FINDING FAME has some figs that match up against these. I'm not sure what happened last time but I' guessing Shug has her back on track. My wise guy pick is (8) KANSAS KIS. She's been getting checks and posted big figs earlier this year. The move back to dirt and adding Rosario makes her a contender.
$ 7.00 WPS 4 Cost: $ 21.00
$3.00 Ex Box 1, 4, 8 Cost: $ 18.00
Race 9:
The 7yr old (4) OUR LAST BUCK won't go away. He's still winning races and doing it impressively. He's coming in off a layoff but with Saez being named, the connections must be confident he's ready. (7) FOOLISH GHOST is just fast. Handal takes a shot against some solid NY Breds and will instruction Rosario to just go. If they leave him alone, they likely don't catch him. (8) JEMOGRAPHY is where I landed. He has a powerful kick so if they are going strong up front, he'll join them late. Davis returns and this guy responds to him as they won three in a row earlier this year.
$ 7.00 WPS 8 Cost: $ 21.00
$3.00 Ex Box 4, 7, 8 Cost: $ 18.00
Race 10:
We're on the slop for the last race. (11) STRONG POINT has speed, Johnny V and experience on a wet track. If she gets to the front, she'll be hard to pass. (15) MALIBU ANTHEM is your MTO and stretches back out. Didn't get away to cleanly in her last and played catch up. Look for Javier to get aggressive early. (7) MISCHIEF REIGNS is bred to not mind the slop. She showed speed last time and Saez will likely try it again.
Comments