Pete's Picks Saratoga 7/17 Plays
- Little Pete
- Jul 17, 2021
- 6 min read
First Saturday at the Spa and it appears we have some rain in the forecast. We will continue to monitor the weather and provide updates as they become available. In the meantime, let's find some winners. We are going to take down the early double, a spot pick 3, and the late pick 3. Big Pete may also mess around and throw in his "Play of the Day" on a race. We appreciate you taking a look at the write-up and GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $2.00 Early Double:
R1: 3, 6, 8, 9
R2: 3, 4, 6
Cost: $24.00
Little Pete's $ 1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R6: 1, 4, 11, 12
R7: 1, 4, 5
R8: 1, 7, 10, 12 Cost: $48.00
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R9: 1, 7, 9
R10: 1, 6, 7, 8
R11: 4, 5, 7, 8 Cost: $ 48.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 3:
(3) AMALFI PRINCESS has two 2nd place finishes on the grass. Not that big of a surprise as she’s a Temple City out of a Danzig Mare. Santana jumps back on and they figure to get a nice set up with some speed signed on. She’s faced better fillies at several different tracks and usually shows up. Looks like Maker has her well spotted for a big run.
We’ll use (1) Misspell and (2) Love and Money underneath.
$ 7.00 WPS 3 Cost $ 14.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 3 w/ 1, 2 Cost $ 14.00
We’ll also use Amalfi Princess in R3 and try to crash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
Both (4) The Golden Door and (7) Grape Nuts Warrior look solid in the 4th
$ 7.00 Double 3 w/ 4, 7 Cost $ 14.00
Little Pete's Early Double:
Race 1:
I am going to try and beat (2) Neuro in the first with four others. (3) War Smoke is a firster from the Jeremiah Englehart barn and he has great numbers with firsters; Irad getting the mount is a big plus. (6) I'm Blaming You is one of the wild cards that I like in here. The horse has been training lights out and Luis Saez choosing to ride is a big plus in here for me. (8) Sheriff Bianco will be on the lead in this one and we most likely will still be on the grass. This horse is a must play in here in case of a wire to wire job. Last play will be (9) Martinez who is a horse with a long layoff and some speed in here. This horse has shown the ability to close and I think horses will be tiring late opening up the lane for a good run down the stretch.
$3.00 WPS 6 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 6,8 w/ 3,6,8,9 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 3,9 w/ 3,6,8,9 Cost: $6.00
Race 2:
I have to beat (5) Repo Rocks in here with three others. This horse finally broker his maiden and is now 1/1 against winners? (3) Baby Yoda looks great in here to me and if we just get even a little bit of rain this horse should be the convincing favorite. This horse will be sent to the lead early and will be a tough catch late. I like (6) Christopher in here to run a nice stalking race and fan out wide come stretch drive. Dylan Davis will be aggressive today and the horse looks to be in decent form. My last play will be (4) Cause of Action who is a class hopper in here and looks to be ascending at the moment. This race is set up for a closer and I trust Cancel to find the lane late.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 3,4,6 Cost: $12.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 6:
I can't leave (11) Chileno off my ticket in here. This horse has a race under their belt and performed well first time out. (1) James Aloysius is a $200K auction horse and gets Luis Saez with a rail position. This horse is training extremely well and Luis will set this horse up well throughout the race. Last play will be (4) Portfolio Company who has the Brown/Irad Ortiz combo and on grass. This horse should be stalking throughout and have a convincing stretch drive as Chad Brown horses typically do. (12) K Club staying in on this one is a bit surprising to me and forces me to pull the trigger. I am not even sure of who the jockey is at this time, but this horse showed plenty of speed on dirt and Pletcher choosing to leave on grass is a signal.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,4 w/ 1,4,11,12 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 11,12 w/ 1,4,11,12 Cost: $6.00
Race 7:
(1A) Shekky Shebaz looks to be the horse to beat in here and just a logical play to keep the ticket alive. The horse I really like in here is (4) Souper Dormy. This horse has shown the closing ability at this distance and has been a victim of trips. Alvarado is an upgrade and will give this horse the best opportunity to run on with this one late; I really like this one. (5) Competitive Saint is my last play with the long layoff and getting Saez. This horse should be sent close to the lead early and has raced against better. The workouts are consistent and lights out and Saez could have a nice price horse to bring home late down the stretch.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 1,4,5 Cost: $12.00
Race 8:
Four deep in here in which I wanted to go with some prices to pull off an upset in this wide open race, but the favorites just look like monsters in here. (1) Beau Liam I think will be the post time favorite and for good reason. This horse destroyed his opponents first time out and got a triple digit beyer speed doing it. I just can't see this horse not being on the lead and being very tough to catch. (7) Witsel is an interesting horse from Chad Brown who is facing winners for the first time. Irad is getting the mount and this horse also had a triple digit beyer speed first time out. This horse could be the biggest competition late for (1) Beau Liam. (10) Croded Trade is my top pick in here to be the strongest late under Castellano. This set up should call for a late run and this horse has raced against more proven horses and ran well against them. (12) Mahaamel will need to work out a trip in here, but Johnny V is great from the gate and will place this horse well throughout. I will include all four as this is going to be an exciting race..
$3.00 WPS 10 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,10 w/ 1,7,10,12 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 7,12 w/ 1,7,10,12 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 9:
(1) WIT was very impressive breaking his maiden after getting away slow. Practical Joke is off to a good start and this one looks pretty talented. We’ll include but look for a better price. That would be (7) OTTOMAN EMPIRE. He too had to come from off the pace after a tardy start. He picks up Jose and has some strong breezes in the morning. If any moisture shows up, he’ll be my top pick. I’ll lean on the Ward runner (9) HEADLINE REPORT in here as he showed some early zip and maintained it throughout. Johnny V didn’t ask much of him as he did it all on his own. He’ll likely stalk the front runners and get first jump on the closers.
$ 7.00 WPS 9 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 1, 9 w/ 1, 7, 9, 10 Cost $ 18.00
Race 10:
Now that Brown has had a little more time with (7) LEMISTA, she will likely give us her best performance today. She came up short to Harvey last time but gets a little more distance and pace to get there today. Appleby has both the speed and closer in here. Both look solid. (6) SUMMER ROMANCE couldn’t hold off her stable mate in the G1 Just a Game like she did in their Feb race. Saez will try to bottom out this group and save some for later. (8) ALTHIQA was strong at the 1M last time. The extra furlong concerns me but she’s a G1 winner. (1) LA SIGNARE has improved this year as she has placed in two G1's already. The 9F works in her favor as she can save ground early and close in late.
$ 7.00 WPS 7 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 6, 7 w/ 1, 6, 7, 8 Cost $ 18.00
Race 11:
(8) ASKIN FOR A BASKIN finished right behind Mahaamel last time so check out his performance in today’s 8th Race. I’m all in with (7) DUCALE. He took money in his debut and was looking the part late in that race. Couldn’t get to Time Leverage that day but gained some experience that day. Franco bails on Baskin to take this mount. (4) SOUTHERN FLAG cuts back slightly after two decent 1M runs. It wouldn’t surprise me if Jr gets aggressive with him early and find themselves on the lead. (5) LEMON DROP ROAD couldn't get by Repo Rocks last time. Check out his performance in todays 2nd, and include Lemon if Repo runs well. I'll include either way.
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