Pete's Picks 9/5 Plays
- Little Pete
- Sep 5, 2020
- 8 min read
Happy Derby day everyone! I will actually be in Saratoga to be rooting on the Home Town hero. We have plenty of great racing going on today in Saratoga and Kentucky. We are going to split our focus between the two tracks, but have the same mindset on both; bringing home some extra $$. At Saratoga, I will be keying in on races 7-9, while Big Pete will be keying in on races 10-12; this is the PK6 sequence. At Churchill, we will be doing a joint PK5 in to the derby, which covers races 10-14. I hope we all have a great day "AT" the races and we can enjoy the sendoff of summer with one last bang. GOOD LUCK.
Saratoga Plays:
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R7: 1, 4, 7, 8, 9
R8: 1, 2, 3, 10, 11
R9: 4, 6, 7
Cost: $75.00
*My favorites in the race highlighted in Purple*
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R10: 4, 5, 7, 9
R11: 2, 3
R12: 1, 5, 8, 10, 12
Cost: $40.00
*My favorites in the race highlighted in Purple*
Churchill Plays:
Joint $0.50 Pick 5:
R10: 7, 10
R11: 2, 3, 4
R12: 8, 9, 10
R13: 3, 4, 8, 10
R14: 15, 16, 17
Cost: $108.00
*Our favorites in each of the races highlighted in Purple*
Little Pete's Saratoga Pick 3:
Race 7:
We are starting our first leg out with a bunch of inexperienced two year olds. Experience is a big factor in this race, so will be including three horses that have raced before. (9) Hidden Enemy looks to be the horse to beat in here and I really like the outside post for this colt. Rosario will be able to find his positioning right from the break without congestion and be able to run his race. (8) Lease is another horse with a start under his belt and we should anticipate a better finish this time out. Lezcano has found his footing recently and we should anticipate this horse to be sent to the early lead; which is the spot you prefer the horses you bet on to be. (1) Restored Order improved from start one to start two and getting the surface switch to grass and added distance. I think the inside post will allow Irad to save ground around both turns and be able to swing the horse wide for a convincing stretch drive. (7) Sifting Sands has all of the connections and really only getting a play here because I do not want to lose to this horse. I do not think this is the spot for him to win, but again I am not losing to this horse in the first leg. (4) Hardison is my last play here from the Bill Mott barn. This son of Tapit should be able to handle the distance and surface extremely well and we should be looking for this horse late down the stretch. This will be an exciting race to watch (Unless Chad Brown's horse is a "Chad Brown Horse").
$3.00 WPS 9 Cost: $9.00
$1.00 Ex 1,4,9 w/ 1,4,7,8,9 Cost: $12.00
Race 8:
We should have another exciting race on grass in this one. I landed on five more horses because I am anticipating a big stretch battle and want to pick the horse whose nose hits the wire first. (1) Klickitat has the speed and I need to have Luis Saez on my ticket. Jockey's have been letting horses get loose on the lead recently and this horse is seeking that lead. (2) Microsecond was scratched out of a stakes race yesterday and entered in to this NY bred allowance race. I am taking that as Pletcher is picking his spots in the trainers standings and he expects a win out of this horse. (3) Good Old Boy ran a big race last time out after a year off and has been consistently training well since. This horse looks to be in good form and a play for me. (10) Simply has shown closing ability and there is not a lack of speed in here. If Rosario can map out the right trip in this one, then this horse should be a player late. My last play will be (11) Jack the Cat who I really like in this spot. This horse has shown closing ability in previous races, but just runs out of gas late. I think that this horse will be more forwardly placed so he does not have to work as hard to catch up to the leaders and the pace will be fast to run in to.
$3.00 WPS 1 Cost: $9.00
$1.00 Ex 1,2,10 w/ 1,2,3,10,11 Cost: $12.00
Race 9:
(9) Dr. Post is going to be the rightful heavy favorite in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. This horse has raced in Grade 1 company and ran extremely well, so a must play here on all tickets. I do think there was a big scratch in this race with his stablemate who I was anticipating being the speed to run in to. I think that this opens the door for two others who could map out a better trip and will be included on my ticket. (4) Jesus' Team ran a big beyer in the Pegasus last time out and looks to be in good form right now. I think this horse will be instructed to find the early lead in here and if left alone up front, then we know what Saez does; WIN. (7) Mystic Guide will be going off for the first time in his career not as the favorite. The target will be off of his back and I think this horse/jockey can focus on finding the right path throughout and battle (6) Dr. Post late down the stretch to try and win this one.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 4,6,7 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's Saratoga Pick 3:
Race 10:
Three year fillies kick off this late Pk3 and Brown has two Into Mischief’s ready to fire. (7) CENTER AISLE almost got to Frank last time and will be trying it again. Look for Rosario to get in gear sooner rather than later this time. (4) SECONDARY MARKET will provide some heat for her stable mate but she just may forget to stop. I like (9) REAGAN’S EDGE to pass them all. She moves outside today which will allow her to stalk and stay clear of traffic. She too just missed Frank and will get overlooked here.
$7.00 WPS 9 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 7,9 w/ 4,5,7,9 Cost: $18.00
Race 11:
The 10F usually separates the men from the boys. (2) TACITUS has proven he can get this far and figures to Re-Pete his Suburban. Jose is back and will be short odds to get it done. Pletcher sends out (3) MORETTI to make sure the pace is right for his other runner (5) SPINOFF to mount a late charge. The others seem distanced challenged so we’ll stick with a cold exacta Tacitus on top and Pletcher underneath.
$10.00 Ex 2 w/ 3,5 Cost: $20.00
Race 12:
We’ll close it out with a bunch in the finale. Weaver usually hits a few late in the Spa season and he has (1) OUR COUNTRY dropping in for a tag. He’s been facing better, so the class relief might make the difference. (8) LIFE ON TOP is the main danger here as he too has been knocking heads with much better. The barns need to pay some bills so all of them are looking for any kind of win. Both of them are strong win candidates. Donk has done well the last two weeks and has (10) OPERATIVE for his 4th Spa start this meet. He’ll likely try to steal it up front. (12) SHOOTIN THE BREEZE dropped last time to this level and closed well into a slow pace. He can be the one closing the fastest if there is a hotter pace than last time.
$7.00 WPS 1 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 1,8 w/ 1,8,10,12 Cost: $18.00
Churchill Late Pick 5:
Race 10:
To start off the PK5 I am going to take a somewhat strong stand in only including two horses, props to me. (10) TheRideofaLifetime looks to be really the only speed in here and should enjoy the stretch out. This horse looks much the favorite on paper and we have a hot rider in Florent Geroux. I will only include (7) Pico D'Oro in the play for a bit of coverage. This horse gets Castellano aboard in here and also looks like the stretch out will be great for him. He is improving each time he steps on the track and we should expect an aggressively ridden horse here.
$5.00 Ex 7,10 w/ 2,7,10 Cost: $20.00
Race 11:
I am a big fan of (4) NewspaperofRecord and looks to be in great form in here. This horse is a must play on tickets, but I like some speed in here to make this trip a bit more uncomfortable for her. (3) Juliet Foxtrot is going to be my top selection in here as I think that Gaffalione is going to be aggressive from the start. He knows the horse to his direct outside wants the lead and he is not the kind of rider to let competitors get any edge on him. I then want the inside horse, (2) Daddy is a Legend, to close in to a relatively fast pace. I am throwing the last race out with the moisture in the ground and thinking this horse will be ready to roll come stretch drive.
$5.00 WPS 3 Cost: $15.00
$2.00 Ex Box 2,3,4 Cost: $12.00
Race 12:
This 7F sprint should come down to the three outside runners. (8) SERENGETI EMPRESS is a sprinter and Amoss finally realizes this. She ran lights out at the Spa last time and should try to grab the lead again here.(9) BLLAFINA will benefit a little today as there are more speeds signed on here. She can make it a closer finish if a dual develops. The one I want is (10) CE CE. She too is a better sprinter and now cuts back. She’ll stalk the front runners and wait for Johnny V’s cue to go and get them. She turned in a bullet on this track last week and looks cocked and loaded for this G1.
$10.00 Ex 10 w/ 8,9 Cost: $20.00
$3.00 Ex 8,9 w/ 8,9,10 Cost: $12.00
Race 13:
I’ll use three in here starting with (1) FACTOR THIS. He only has cheap speed to deal with from the outside runners. He should get to the front and dictate the fractions. Big advantage if he clears off. I’m leaning heavy on (8) SACRED LIFE to run a big one here. Paco got to know him last time as they ran huge off the layoff. The 9F seems perfect for him. He’ll be flying late with (3) ROCKEMPEROR who just missed by a nose in the Manhattan. This one likes to go longer so Johnny V will have to muscle him earlier. Little Pete is adding (4) Digital Age in case the fractions are hot and this horse runs the best late.
$10.00 Ex 8 w/ 3,10 Cost: $20.00
$3.00 Ex 3,10 w/ 3,4,8,10 Cost: $18.00
Race 14:
We’ll include the obvious as (17) TIZ THE LAW will be odds on as he has done everything right to get here. My problem is that all of the runners he beat will likely turn out to be G3 material. That’s not his fault but he will finally face some, at least, G2 runners today. I’ll try to beat him with (16) HONOR A.P. This guy is begging for 10F and he gets this young kid Mike Smith up. He should be in the 2nd pack of runners and let his HOF jock figure out the trip. (15) NY TRAFFIC looks to be long winded as well. He just keeps coming. If the other back up to him, he’s capable of sustaining his run to pass them all. LITTLE PETE HERE AND I AM SINGLING THE HOMETOWN HERO (17) TIZ THE LAW.
$10.00 Ex 16 w/ 15,17 Cost: $20.00
$3.00 Ex 15,17 w/ 15,16,17 Cost: $12.00
I also accidentally created this video when trying to create a GIF for the front page, so decided to include it in here to get the reader PUMPED (Volume up). Sorry in advance...
Comments