Pete's Picks 9/4 Plays
- Little Pete
- Sep 4, 2020
- 8 min read
What a couple days of racing we have ahead of us and we are going to try our best to cover most of it. Such a strange thing that Saratoga is overlapping the Kentucky derby, but that is the world that we live in. Saratoga has SIX stake races today in a stacked twelve race card. We have most of the world class jockey's sticking around to close the meet and should get a nice competitive ending in the jockey and trainer standings. Churchill Downs also has their share of stake races today as well, which is headlined by the $1.25 MILLION Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. Big Pete and I are going to pick and choose some spots on both cards, so if you we do not touch on a race you would like to dive in to then please reach out by email (petespicksblog@gmail.com) or Twitter (@PetesPicks1). We would love to discuss in more detail with you.
Saratoga Plays:
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R7: 3, 4, 5
R8: 1, 3, 6, 8
R9: 4, 8, 13
Cost: $36.00
*Top plays highlighted in purple*
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R10: 2, 5
R11: 1, 5, 7
R12: 1, 2, 4, 8, 9
Cost: $30.00
*Top plays highlighted in purple*
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Saratoga Race 1:
I like the two horses exiting the same race, (2) Rossa Veloce and (5) Summer Brew, but I expect them to engage in an early battle in this extra furlong race compared to their first battle. I then think this opens the race up for some horses that can find good positioning around the turn and deliver a convincing stretch battle. I do not expect the early pace to be blistering and the two horses mentioned making this race a two horse battle. I really like (3) Infringement in this spot who will be ridden quickly out of the gate to find a stalking position and should have a convincing stretch drive. I also am anticipating an improved effort for (4) Samborella who got money thrown at her first time out and gets Luis Saez aboard. We should expect this horse forwardly placed and the distance should work well for this horse.
$3.00 Ex 3,4 w/ 2,3,4,5 Cost: $18.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Saratoga Race 6:
(8) TERCERO has been on the shelf for 8 months after a good 2nd to a decent runner. He’s also faced some of the top 2 year olds in a few races last year. Now Mott ships him up from training down at Belmont instead of waiting a week or two. The works say this guy can wait no longer as he must be tearing down the barn. The presence of Irad means this guy is live. We’ll play across the board and use with (3) ADVANCED STRATEGY, (5) PAPA LUKE and (9) WHICHWAYTOMALIBU vertically.
$10.00 WPS 8 Cost: $30.00
Little Pete's Saratoga Spot Pick 3:
Race 7:
I am going to kick off the ticket by beating the morning line favorite in this one. (1) Eagle Orb had a nice showing first time out and had an impressive beyer figure to back that up. I just think that he is running in to a field that will be tougher to catch. I am anticipating (4) Lookin For Trouble to shoot out of the gate and find the early lead. I think the previous race experiences will help this horse move forward and will be ready for a more sustained run; I think this horse will be favorite come post time. (5) Effinity is another horse who will be forwardly placed and coming in after an impressive win last time out makes me think this horse will be able to handle a more competitive field. My last play is going to be (3) Market Alert who will be a strong player in here. I anticipate this horse to be able to sit behind the early speed and be the best horse late. This will be an exciting race throughout.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 3,4,5 Cost: $12.00
Race 8:
I landed on four horses in the middle leg of this pick 4. I like (6) Astoria Kitten to be on the lead or in a good stalking position around the turn and have plenty in the tank to challenge down the stretch. (3) Light in the Sky should be in a much better position with this stretch out to a mile 1/16th. This horse has been plagued with slow breaks, so we should anticipate a big run from this horse. (8) Summer at the Spa is another horse I like in here with the move to Saez. Sometimes the jockeys take their horses out of races in these turf routes, but Saez never lets that happen. This horse will be placed forwardly and that is the place to be. (1) Crescent Lady is coming in to this race in good form and I think has a stretch drive in her to challenge for the win. Bill Mott has been hot this meet and has an ascending horse in here, so will make sure to play on ticket.
$3.00 WPS 1 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,3 w/ 1,3,6,8 Cost: $12.00
Race 9:
(8) Freewheeler is coming in to this race fresh off an impressive tune up race and needs to be on all tickets. Irad has the horse underneath him, so we should anticipate a big ride here. (13) Uncle George is another horse that I think will improve in here. He is getting some distance relief and breaking from the outside which should allow this horse to work his way in to the first time commotion free. I think Rosario will be able to eat up ground and have this horse ready to charge to the wire. My last play will be an improved effort from (4) More Like It. Dylan Davis is having a fantastic meet and makes the most with his opportunities. I think he will let this horse show off the speed early and will want to try and wire this field. In case they let this horse run free on the lead, I will include.
$3.00 WPS 8 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 4,8,13 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's Saratoga Late Pick 3:
Race 10:
Both favorites look the part in this Fleet Indian Stakes. I’m only using these two to kick off this late Pk3. (5) CRITICAL VALUE has done nothing wrong to date and her last race was her best yet. Sat chilly early, then, was let loose to win by as much as she wanted. Englehart gives her a rabbit on the rail to make sure that the pace develops. Possible single alert but (2) ICE PRINCESS will likely make her earn it today. She tried Swiss Skydiver and open company last time and it just wasn’t happening. Now she moves back in against NYS fillies and more importantly, picks up Irad. This Palace Malice will have no problem with the 9F and will also benefit by the rabbit. It should be a good stretch dual. (6) PLAYTONE is a Tonalist so she may sneak into the exacta if one of the favorites tires late.
$5.00 Ex 2,5 w/ 2,5,6 Cost: $20.00
Race 11:
(1) DOT MATRIX will be a short price and a must use in the West Point. He drops from open company G2 to this NYS Bred stake and figures to be a handful. (7) THERAPIST usually fires when facing his state breds as well. He’ll be the one moving better than the group, it’s the question of, will he get there in time. The new face is the 4 year old (5) RINALDI. He looks dangerous as one of the speeds who can shake loose before the closers get on track. He soundly beat Evaluator last time and that one ran big this week. Look for Luis to control this field soon after the start.
$7.00 WPS 5 Cost: $21.00
$5.00 Ex 1,5 w/ 1,5,7 Cost: $20.00
Race 12:
Yet another NY Bred race to close this Pk3 and (4) SMITE, for some reason, drops to the MCL level after just missing against MSW earlier this meet. Mixed signals here as the connections are giving this guy away, which is usually not a good sign. We’ll use defensively. Many in here have been competing at this level and they all have shown up at times to make this a competitive race. In most cases, it comes down to who get the right trip. I’ll lean on (2) TEMPESTA and Lezcano to run their same race as they did last time. He seemed to like the Saratoga turf and now gets another crack at it. (9) FLUENT IN SARCASM is hoping a third time at the Spa is a charm. Irad will try to steal this one and beat Smite out of the gate. (1) BOOM BOOM KABOOM gets Rosario and will try to give Weaver another win for a barn who has been struggling. Even 0 for 31 gelding (8) FREUDIAN ANALYST is not impossible with this group if Smite has suddenly gone bad on the drop.
$7.00 WPS 2 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 1,2 w/ 1,2,4,9 Cost: $18.00
Churchill Downs Plays:
Little Pete's $2.00 Spot Pick 4:
R9: 2, 3, 6, 8
R10: 2
R11: 8
R12: 1, 5
Cost: $16.00
Race 9:
I really like the first leg of this pick 4 sequence and think we have a chance to get some value to head in to the chalky portion of the card. (3) Sharing is the deserving favorite in here and definitely the horse to beat, but I think this mile route on grass is open to other contenders. (6) Pranked is a price horse that I really like in this spot coming in from the Tom Amoss barn. This horse finished well last time out at this distance and workouts show this horse in good form. (2) Hendy Woods showed great speed at this distance in her closing victory last time out and will get a firm surface to run on, which I think only helps. (8) Walk In Marrakesh is my last play in here coming in from the outside with revenge on the brain against the favorite. This horse will show improvement this time out and I like the outside horses in these turf routes.
$3.00 WPS Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 3,6 w/ 2,3,6,8 Cost: $12.00
Race 10:
(2) Mckinzie is in good form and will show up and show out today in Kentucky. I respect (6) By My Standards, but I think (2) Mckinzie is on a mission and will get back to the winning ways. I love the speed of this horse from the inside and will be set to the lead by Mike Smith and I am anticipating that be all she wrote.
$5.00 Ex 2 w/ 3,6 Cost $10.00
Race 11:
(8) Monomy Girl is rolling right now and getting the single on my cheap PK4 ticket. I do think that there are some good horses in this one, but no one in better form than (8) Monomy Girl. I think we can use this horse in multiple horizontal plays as a single and hope we can catch a price somewhere throughout.
$5.00 Ex 8 w/ 2,6,7 Cost: $15.00
Race 12:
The Kentucky Oaks is going to run through two horses with (1) Swiss Skydiver and (5) Gamine. This is going to be a fantastic race between two great fillies. (4) Speech will get an honorable mention, but if we are just being honest if one of these two horses do not win this race then it will be a significant upset. I am a HUGE fan of (1) Swiss Skydiver and really love her here in this spot. I think that with the distance experience this horse will be able to press (5) Gamine throughout, but be able to save ground from being on the inside. I will hammer a WPS on the (1) Swiss Skydiver and will be one of her biggest fans today.
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