Pete's Picks 9/30 Belmont Plays
- Little Pete
- Sep 30, 2021
- 5 min read
Thursday racing on the last day of September in NY and we have the entire card covered. I will be locked in to taking down the early double (Races 1 & 2) and a spot pick 3 (Races 4-6). Big Pete will be playing one of his "Plays of the Day" and taking down the late pick 3 (Races 7-9). We appreciate you taking a look at this write-up and GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $2.00 Early Double:
R1: 1, 2, 5
R2: 2, 5, 9 Cost: $18.00
Little Pete's $ 1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R4: 3, 5, 8
R5: 4, 6, 7, 9
R6: 1, 2, 3, 8 Cost: $ 48.00
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R7: 1, 7, 8
R8: 1, 4, 5, 10
R9: 7, 9, 10, 11 Cost: $ 48.00
Little Pete's $2.00 Early Double:
Race 1:
(1/1A) have the jockey's and the speed to handle this lower level field. This may come down to these jockey's being too good for the field and bullying their way to a win. (2) Danny Deep Cuts is coming in strong with two wins in a row in climbing fashion and has the post position to sit on the rail and get a nice trip throughout. (5) Wicked Amber has some class relief in here and gets back to dirt. This horse looks to be in good form and I think a smart hedge play in case the early pace is blistering for this level.
$3.00 Ex Box 1,2,5 Cost: $18.00
Race 2:
(2) EscapeWithFriends has a bullet workout coming in and the inside post to boot. This horse will get an aggressive ride from the gate and should have enough left against this field to hit the wire first. (5) New York Supreme is another horse that has some speed and the Rosario pick up makes me believe this horse will get a ground saving trip and time a late run to compete for the wire. Last play will be (9) Candy Monet who is coming in with a couple of bullet workouts and has had some rough trips in the last two. With a better trip I think this horse is a strong contender to win this one at a nice price.
$3.00 WPS 9 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 2,5,9 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 3:
(4) HAPPY MEDIUM has been away for a few months after showing speed back in his March debut. A sharp bullet on 9/20 is a good sign that he’s ready to run again. Nevin switches to Franco and we’re expecting an aggressive ride today. If this RunHappy can clear off, I figure she’ll be hard to run down late.
I’ll look for both (1) Mach One and (5) Castle Chaos to come late underneath
$ 10.00 WPS 4 Cost $ 30.00
$ 7.00 Ex 4 w/ 1, 5 Cost $ 14.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 4:
(3) Lagom is my top pick in here as I think the switch to Castellano will make a huge difference in this one late. This race has speed in it and this horse should be in a position to save ground throughout and have a lane to run down the tiring horses late and I trust Castellano to do that, especially on grass. (5) Lido Key is going to be stalking the pace and wait for the lane to open and run a convincing stretch drive as well. (8) CAndy Flower is going to be sitting on the pace as well and I think these horses are going to be strong contenders late.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 3,5,8 Cost: $12.00
Race 5:
(6) Klickitat moves back in with his fellow NY Breds and returns to the Belmont turf. His best race to date was here back in July and Cancel returns. (7) Regal Speaker will get an aggressive ride from Saez and should be right off the pace throughout and wait for the lane to open up to try and run down the leaders. (9) Ghost Giant is a dangerous horse late if the pace heats up. However, if (4) Mo Faith is allowed to set easy fractions early, Paco can spurt away coming into the stretch and make it difficult for the boys to close into.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $ 9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 4, 6, 9 Cost: $12.00
Race 6:
I am taking the layup in here and going with the Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher horses. (1) Mo Donegal and (8) Varatti from the Pletcher barn should be aggressively ridden from the gate and be a threat to wire the field in their own trip. (2) Green Jacket and (3) Triple Elvis from the Brown barn are both showing speed in the morning and should have a competitive run throughout. These four horses look much the best on paper against this field and trusting the trainers in here to close the ticket.
$3.00 WPS 8 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 2,8 w/ 1,2,3,8 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 1,3 w/ 1,2,3,8 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 7:
I am not a fan of Brown’s favorite coming off the long layoff and try to get by without her. I do like the other Brown (8) SPA READY a little though. She can let her stable mate do all the dirty work and come with ther late run. (1) GLASS CEILING struggles with the win column but always seems to show up. She was beat by two good ones the last time she was on Big Sandy and she is coming into this race off a bullet. It’s now or never for this gal today. (7) MORE MOONSHINE is the filly to beat IMO. Huge debut at the Spa and then tried to go long. She’s bred to excel at this 6.5F and Jr returns.
$ 7.00 WPS 1 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 1, 7 w/ 1, 2, 7, 8 Cost $ 18.00
Race 8:
(1) PERFECT MUNNINGS ran huge with L1 last time and now tries open company. Pletcher continues to win and the grass shouldn’t matter. 7:2ML is hard to pass on with Saez aboard. With a few speeds in here, I will lean on (4) COLTON’S COMMAND to stalk and pounce when Rosario lets him loose. He’s been dealing with some fast sprinters lately and the extra distance only helps. (5) CHRISTOPHER has picked up his game since moving to the turf. Davis returns and they teamed up to score by four two back. (10) DIGITAL FUTURE is bred to be a force sprinting on the turf. He finally proved that last month at the Spa. Irad will likely get first jump on the closers so if he can get some separtion early, it may be over.
$ 7.00 WPS 4 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 4, 5 w/ 1, 4, 5, 10 Cost $ 18.00
Race 9:
(7) ALPHA BABE is going good right now and figures to be a handful against these. She won easy here breaking her maiden and followed that up with a fst closing 2nd at the Spa. She’s the filly to beat. (9) ENTWINE finally got back to the turf but lost too much ground going wide. Still managed to get 3rd and post a number that would stack up well today. I landed on (10) AMORTIZATION who’s fresh off the Weaver claim. She finished behind Alpha but that was her 2nd race off a long layoff. New barn should have her on her toes and Castellano is finally winning again. (11) FREDDYMO FACTOR exits the same race and weakened late. The switch to Rosario means this mare should be live and ready to go.
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