Gulfstream 5/17 Late Pick 4
- Little Pete
- May 17, 2020
- 4 min read
We may be running in to some more rain right around the 6th or 7th race, so will have to pay attention to any changes. We will create our joint late pick 4 ticket with current scratches, and may have to update on Twitter if any surface changes or late scratches. We still remain confident that we will take this pool down. GOOD LUCK.
$0.50 Late Pick 4 Ticket:
R8: 1, 3, 4
R9: 3
R10: 1, 3, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12
R11: 1, 3, 5, 6
Cost: $42.00
Race 8:
Big Pete:
(1) PRINCE OF ARABIA ran into the very sharp Conviction Trade in his last. Battle of Blenheim also returned to post a decent win coming out of that race. I’m expecting the same result from the Prince today. With the scratch of So High, the race lacks any speed. Maybe Davis and (4) RHYTHMIA will change tactics and go and hope for the best.(3) NOBLE THOUGHT who moves back to the turf while facing better and gets Irad.
$3.00 Ex Box 1,3,4 Cost: $18.00
Little Pete:
I landed on Irad in this one on the (3) Noble Thought who should handle this small class drop and move back to grass (Pending rain), and be able to get to a stalking position and let his class shine down the stretch. I do think we should include the two other morning line favorites, (1) Prince of Arabia and (7) So High. (1) Prince of Arabia's previous two races on grass have a triple beyer speed and the horse shows a sustained run throughout, and this could be the perfect race for him to win it. (7) So High is getting his states debut today and workouts look good and the horse loves to stretch out. Saez gets the mount, so makes this horse a player for me.
$2.00 Ex Box 1,3,7 Cost: $12.00
Race 9:
Big Pete:
You can argue that (3) SPINOFF may have needed his last coming off an 8 Mo freshening. Those were 7F specialists and he wasn’t embarrassed to say the least. Now he stretches out, which plays more into his game. Most likely stalk the rail runner and take over when Irad says so. (7) YOU’RE TO BLAME is the other Pletcher that clearly wasn’t ready last time. Worked out with stable mate back in April and has kept a steady work tab since. I’m looking for him to bounce back as he gets the hot riding Vasquez.
$3.00 Ex 3,7 w/ 3,4,6,7 Cost: $18.00
Little Pete:
I am going to take a stand here and single (3) Spinoff who will have shaken the rust from the long layoff last time out and gets back to a stretched out distance to show off his ability. There is a lot of speed here, which does make me think twice especially if we have a wet surface; but I think that (3) Spinoff will benefit from a pressed pace with Irad aboard. (4) Big Dollar Bill and (5) Phat Man are the two horses that I think have the second and third best chance of taking this one late, but I am set on the single.
$5.00 Ex 3 w/ 4,5 Cost: $10.00
Race 10:
Big Pete:
Not happy about the post draw for (12) MISS MUNNINGS but I’ll trust Saez to work it out. Beat this level two back, then faced much better only losing by three lengths in a G3. (9) EBULLIENT will try to steal this one. If she clears the rail runner, she’s capable of taking them all the way. I’m taking a shot with (7) BEALE STREET. Her late kick should be much stronger with the cut back to 8.5F. If Ebullient gets pressured, this guy will be the main danger to go by them all.
$7.00 WPS 7 Cost: $21.00
Little Pete:
I sense this one to be a highly competitive race, so I am going to spread a bit in this one. (7) Beale Street is going to be my top selection in this one with the class drop and the closing speed, but as stated I am spreading around. (1) MakeALitleMischief has Jaramillo aboard and I anticipate him to try and steal this one from the jump, so will include. (3) Dark Artist with the class drop as well and going to be ready to go in this one. (6) Guacamole is getting the Irad/Pletcher play for me, so I do not lose to them. (11) Zarina will be my price play here with a little wet surface to bring out the most in this horse. (12) Miss Munnings will also love some moisture in the track and will be a handful regardless in this one.
$2.00 Ex 7,12 w/ 1,3,6,7,11,12 Cost: $20.00
Race 11:
Big Pete:
We’ll close out this Pk4 with two speeds and two closers. There’s potential for a hot pace so I’ll start with the closers. Fav (6) CATHARSIS beat some of these already and will be a danger late. I’m more interested in the longshot (5) FREE THE BEAST. He benefits the most if the speed backs up in the lane. Look for her to be flying late. Both (1) AWSUM ROAR and (3) STORMY NELLY will be active early and try to take them as far they can.
$7.00 WPS 5 Cost: $21.00
Little Pete:
Irad sticking around for the finale and going to be my single. This horse can handle a blistering pace or reasonable one and still find the winner's circle. I am going to close this ticket with a single and lay it all on table for Irad. (6) Catharsis is the name of the horse..
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