Churchill Downs: Saturday, 5/7, Kentucky Derby Day - Pete's Picks
- Little Pete
- May 7, 2022
- 5 min read
Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs and we are ready for the bright lights and the day is shaping up to be rain free! We are looking to attack each of the EIGHT Stake races today (Kentucky Derby is Race 12; post time approximately 6:57 pm), and will be splitting our plays into a pair of pick 3's and our "Play of the Days". I will be locked into Races 7-9 and Big Pete will be focused on Races 10-12; I will also include my Kentucky Derby pick. We really appreciate you taking a look at this write-up and GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R7: 5, 10, 11
R8: 2, 6, 7
R9: 6, 7, 9, 10
Cost: $36.00
Big Pete's $0.50 Late Pick 3 (Into the Kentucky Derby):
R10: 1, 5, 8
R11: 5, 6, 8
R12: 1, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12
Cost: $ 54.00
Kentucky Derby Selection:
Little Pete: (12) Taiba
Big Pete and I are both siding with the the horses that ran 1-2 in the Santa Anita Derby. (12) Taiba has the least experience in the field and I think that plays to his advantage; we haven't seen his best yet. This distance will allow Mike Smith to find a position behind the lead early and avoid traffic throughout this trip. I think this horse will be fanned out the farthest come stretch drive and I will put this horse against any other in the field for the sprint to the wire.
Big Pete: (6) Messier
(6) MESSIER got caught by Taiba last time but may have been a little short that day. He got clear on them and couldn't put that one away. With a little more foundation, this Empire Maker won't mind this demanding 10F distance. Johnny V stays here and will likely get this guy to the front turning for home and grind out the rest through the stretch.
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 5:
Chad Brown is likely to run 1-2 in here and I am not going to overthink this one. (7) In Italian is going to be sent to the lead in this mile distance and has shown the ability to maintain the lead in her previous 3 races. I think the overseas ship in on (8) Speak of the Devil is her biggest competitor late under Flavien Prat and I will hammer the exacta with these two.
$5.00 Ex Box 7,8 Cost: $10.00
$2.00 Tri 7,8 w/ 7,8 w/ ALL Cost: $16.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 6:
I'm swinging for the fence with (12) ENDORSED IN HERE. He's been facing some good ones as of late. This field didn't come up that strong and Maker has him well spotted.
$ 7.00 WPS 12 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex Box 2, 7, 12 Cost $ 18.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 7:
I am a HUGE fan of (5) Jack Christopher and this horse has to be my top play. This is his debut race in 2022 and the workouts scream that this horse is ready to keep his unbeaten record intact. This horse seeks the lead and I think possesses the most speed to his inside; I am expecting a great break and an early forward position on the rail. I really want to single this horse, but the layoff does intimidate me a bit. I like (10) Doppelganger coming into this one with a bullet workout and coming into this one finishing right behind the Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath. I think this horse is primed for a big race with the cutback in distance and Johnny V is a bully up front. (11) My Prankster is going to find his best footing down the stretch and I think will be close enough to the lead to find a lane to run into. I trust Saez on any horse and if you give him an opportunity to run down tiring horses, then he will pick them off one by one.
$5.00 WPS 5 Cost: $15.00
$3.00 Ex Box 5,10,11 Cost: $18.00
Race 8:
(2) Just One Time is exiting her best race to date and always seems to win the bob. Brad Cox won a lot of them yesterday and Flavien Prat is one of the top 3 riders in the world; must play in here. (6) Bell’s the One is going to get a firm track and has shown the ability to eat up dirt late down the stretch. I think this horse will be able to fan out wide come stretch drive and make it very exciting late; plus, that bullet workout coming in leads me to believe that this horse will not be too far off coming around the turn. (7) Edgeway looks dangerous in here under Johnny V. The bullet workout paired with the impressive run away win last time out makes this horse another must play.
$3.00 WPS 2 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 2,6,7 Cost: $12.00
Race 9:
This race is going to have a fun finish and I think is won by a head bob. In this one, I am looking for (10) Coinage to be on the lead early and have a head start against the closers in this field. I think that Florent Geroux will challenge others to catch him late and I like that style of racing in these turf races. (7) Sy Dog is coming in undefeated and will run a stalking race throughout and come charging late down the stretch; it’s not about by how much you win the race, it’s just about winning. (6) Portfolio Company is another horse that will be storming late and is training extremely well on grass right now. I think Rosario will find the rail early and wait for that lane to open up inside and attack with plenty of horse left. My last play is Flavien Prat choosing (9) Stolen Base in here. This horse isn’t running into Tiz the Bomb in here and will be poised late to run down the front runners. The workouts look great and I like the thought of this horse attacking from the outside late.
$2.00 Ex 7,9 w/ 6,7,9,10 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 6,10 w/ 6, 7, 9, 10 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 10:
Chad Brown has been slowly bringing (5) REINVESTMENT RISK along. Only 7 races for this 4 yr old but sprinting seems to be his thing. No one was beating Speaker's Corner in the Carter, yet this guy still ran on to get 2nd. Irad is back and this guy will be worth the investment. (1) ALOHA WEST is your BC Champ. A strong bullet last week indicates that the layoff may not be an issue. If he's right, he should be right there. Pletcher cuts back (8) CEZANNE and gets the hot rider. If the other two don't bring their A game, this guy will make them pay.
$ 7.00 WPS 5 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 5, 8 w/ 1, 5, 7, 8 Cost $ 18.00
Race 11:
(8) ADHAMO closed from the clouds in his US debut but came up just short. Brown should have hi a light tighter for this one. Expecting a big run today. I'll use one more as a savor. (5) MIRA MISSION got to within a length of winning the G1 Makers at Kee. The extra furlong will help so if the favorite is 100%, he should be coming home late.
$ 7.00 WPS 5 Cost $ 21.00
$ 5.00 Ex 5, 8 w/ 5, 6, 8 Cost $ 20.00
Race 12:
(6) MESSIER got caught by Taiba last time but may have been a little short that day. He got clear on them and couldn't put that one away. With a little more foundation, this Empire Maker won't mind this demanding 10F distance. Johnny V stays here and will likely get this guy to the front turning for home and grind out the rest through the stretch. (8) CHARGE IT has only three starts but has made big strides in each one. The distance won't be a problem for this Tapit and gets the hot Saez. I'll use those two on top and look for (1) MO DONEGAL, (10) ZANDON and (11) PIONER OF MEDINA to come late for a peice.
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