Churchill Downs: Friday, 5/6, Kentucky Oaks Day - Pete's Picks

Little Pete
May 6, 2022
5 min read

We made it to the Kentucky Derby weekend and as expected, we have a stacked card at Churchill Downs. We are headlined today by the $1.25 Million Kentucky Oaks in the 11th, which is one of SEVEN stake races today. It is to note that we are expecting rain in the forecast which could affect some of our plays later in the day. First post is at 10:30 today and races run through 9:00, so buckle up. I will be targeting to take down a spot pick 3 (Races 6-8) and Big Pete will be playing a pick 3 into the Kentucky Oaks (Races 9-11), as well as his "Play of the Day" in the 5th. We really appreciate you taking a look at this write-up and we look forward to cashing some tickets; GOOD LUCK.

Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:

R6: 2, 5, 6

R7: 1, 5, 6, 7

R8: 3, 5, 8, 9

Cost: $48.00

Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3 (Into the Kentucky Oaks):

R9: 5, 8, 10

R10: 8, 9, 10, 13

R11: 2, 4

Cost: 24.00

Big Pete's "Play of the Day":

Race 5:

Brown will be the main focus with Bleecker Street and even Fluffy Socks. I’m fine with that as I like the Temple City mare, (9) PASS THE PLATE going 9F finally. She has been close in all three starts at the 8.5F distance this year. She loses some weight today and is coming off her best race to date.

Both (1) Fluffy Socks and (8) Bleecker Street look like the competition.

$ 7.00 WPS 9 Cost $ 21.00

$ 3.00 Exacta Box 1, 8, 9 Cost $ 18.00

We’ll also use Pass The Plate in R5 and try to crash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.

Both (4) Battle Bling and (6) Pauline’s Pearl look solid in the 6th

$ 7.00 Double 9 w/ 4, 6 Cost $ 14.00

Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:

Race 6:

I think this race is won on the front end and the two heavy favorites deserve to be on the ticket to kick this PK3 off. (2) SheDaresTheDevil has the inside post and the early speed to find the lead on the rail and not look back. This is the preferred distance for the horse and training looks consistently well coming into this one. (6) Pauline’s Pearl is going to be sent right out from the gate to find a stalking position and wait for the stretch drive to run her best. This horse is my top pick in here with those bullet workouts coming in and Rosario taking the mount for the third time. My outside play is going to be an improved effort from (5) She’s All Wolfe. Mike Smith is getting the call on this one and I can take a guess as to where he will be throughout this race; forwardly placed. This horse sustains big runs against similar company and I think the jockey bump will make a huge difference.

Race 7:

I really like (7) Happy Saver in here and I think has revenge on the brain. Irad has a live horse in here and this horse has shown the ability to close strongly. I am trusting the ride to get it done in here and at a decent price. (1) Max Player has the speed and the inside post. I think this allows this horse to find his footing early and have plenty left in the tank late; per usual. (5) Olympiad is coming into this one winning 3 in a row and looks to be in great form. Alvarado has his eyes locked into winning one on derby weekend and I like a hungry jockey on a proven horse. My last play will be the closing ability of (6) Fulsome. Florent Geroux is on two big time horses in the first two legs of my PK3 and I think this price will come down a bit from 8/1 like the ML says. Expect this horse to be sitting on the rail 3 or 4 back and fan out wide late and be the quickest down the stretch.

Race 8:

The Chad Brown trio are must plays in here and I am favoring an impressive run from (8) Spicer. I think that Jose Ortiz will be a little more aggressive then the others and be in position to find the lane to narrowly nudge out her stablemates. (3) McKlulick and (5) Dolce Zel are the other monsters I need to include. My last play will be the horse I think is on the lead early, (9) New Year’s Eve. Luis loose on the lead is a play I love and I like him to play some bully ball late at a really nice price.

Big Pete's Spot Pick 3:

Race 9:

(8) MATAREYA looked the best every step of the Beaumont last month at Keeneland. Barley broke a sweat and was geared down. If she runs that same race, 5:2 will feel like a gift. (10) SWEET DANI GIRL cuts back for this and maybe she find a little Rachel greatness inside. Jose is back and the 7F seems perfect for her. The wild card to me is the Gun Runner, (5) WICKED HALO. She has a G2 in her pocket and may have needed her last two to get back in form. She stretches out here and picks up Irad. I lot to like.

$ 7.00 WPS 5 Cost $ 21.00

$ 3.00 Ex 5, 8 w/ 2, 5, 8, 10 Cost $ 18.00

Race 10:

It’ll be a mad dash to the wire in this 5.5F turf sprint. Ward will be on display with (10) ARREST ME RED. They may not have been 100% in his 2022 debut as they were farther back then usual. Irad may step on the gas a little harder today and go right from the start. (8) GEAR JOCKEY is my upset chance in here. He was too far back to make a difference last time but still managed 3rd. Rusty will instruct jock to be aggressive and gobble them up late. (9) PYRON tried turf and liked it. Pratt takes over for Stall and maybe the sleeper in here. (13) WHATMAKESSAMMYRUN is Johnny V. This guy ships in from California and is 2 for 2 sprinting. Working fast for this.

$ 7.00 WPS 8 Cost $ 21.00

$ 3.00 Ex 8, 10 w/ 8, 9, 10, 13 Cost $ 18.00

Race 11:

I can’t find any kinks in the favorite’s armor in this 9F Oaks. (4) NEST has been dominate in all five starts and clearly looks as though she’s getting better; scary thought. The extra distance won’t bother this Curlin and Irad can either go or sit back and press the button turning for home. (10) KATHLEEN O has also been picture perfect. She finally leaves GP and will have to prove it in the spotlight. The only negative for me is the 9F. I’m not a fan of Upstart’s getting this distance. I’ll try to get some prices underneath the favorite. The two closest to the rail (1) SECRET OATH and (2) NOSTALGIC have the right pedigree to get this 9F distance. Both will let the speeds do their thing and then mount a decent closing kick. I don’t have confidence that they can catch the favorite but 2nd place isn’t all that bad.