Churchill 5/30 Spot & Late Pick 3

Little Pete
May 30, 2020
4 min read

Saturday racing in Kentucky this afternoon and we are looking to take down a pair of pick 3 plays. Weather does not seem to be an issue today, so we can anticipate a very competitive race day at Churchill. We have some stacked fields in this one which should translate to some nice payouts. I will be focusing in on races 6-8, and Big Pete will be focusing in on races 9-11. The plays could be combined in to a pick 6 play if you are feeling frisky and we will have some vertical plays in each of these races to hedge the plays a bit as well. GOOD LUCK.

Little Pete's Spot $0.50 Pick 3:

R6: 2, 5, 10, 11, 12

R7: 2, 8

R8: 7, 9, 12

Cost: $15.00

Big Pete's Late $0.50 Pick 3:

R9: 5, 7, 10, 11

R10: 4, 7, 10

R11: 1, 2, 3, 8

Cost: $24.00

Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:

Race 6:

(2) Letmeno is going to be my top selection second time out on grass with Leparoux aboard. This horse will definitely benefit from the stretch out in distance and will be getting a quick early pace to open this horse up to pass tiring horses late with a surge. There are plenty of good competitors in this one, so going to spread myself in the first leg a little more than just one. (5) Buy Me Candy will be ready for the more competitive field and be set up well by Lanerie to stalk the lead and challenge for the win. (10) Tiesto is a must play in this one as this horse has beaten better, but I still prefer (2) Letmeno in this one. (11) Tabled will be forwardly placed by Ortiz and the past performances and workouts are great on this horse, and this horse could wire the field if not challenged early. (12) Angelus Warrior has the winning combination of Gaffalione/Maker and two bullet workouts on this horse could mean this one is live; will include.

$1.00 Ex 2,10,11 w/ 2,5,10,11,12 Cost: $12.00

Race 7:

The Grade 3 Winning Colors looks to be a two horse race between (2) Break Even and (8) Mia Mischief. As much as I want a filly to beat the boys here, I think this one is (8) Mia Mischief's race for the taking. This horse is finding his stride and has proven ability against similar fields to nail this distance at the wire. The workouts leading in show this horse is still ascending and going to be a tough beat. I consider it to be a single, but going to include (2) Break Even in case this filly can't be caught on the lead.

$3.00 Ex 2,8 w/ 1,2,7,8 Cost: $18.00

Race 8:

I landed on three horses in this maiden special weight race. My top selection in this one is going to be (7) Bear Alley, who lost to Ever Dangerous last time out and this horse took a class leap in to stakes racing and had a bad break and forced four wide on each turn, but still managed a decent race. I think (7) Bear Alley will be able to get to the early lead and be able to save some stamina throughout to have a nice finish. (9) Ashiham is getting the stretch out that this horse is screaming for and will be a strong contender here and must play on my ticket. (12) Bakers Bay is coming out of a bullet workout and this is his second time on dirt; which should translate to a good break and a more sustained run in this one.

$2.00 Ex Box 7,9,12 Cost: $12.00

Big Pete's Late Pick 3:

Race 9:

I don’t think we’ll get 8:1 on (7) UNAQUOI, but I won’t argue if we do. This 6yr old Mare still has some zip in her as her workouts indicate. She’ll need the speeds to back up and I think that happens today. Leparoux is capable of winning at Churchill so let’s hope he times it right. Both (5) I’LLHANDLETHECASH and (11) DIXIEINCANDYLAND have similar stalking and closing styles that fit this 5.5F dash. Connections are stronger on Dixie, but CASH faced better last time and is my upset play. We’ll spread a little more and include (10) WHIMSICAL MUSE incase they let her get too far away coming into the stretch. She hasn’t lost on the lawn yet.

$7.00 WPS 7 Cost: $21.00

$3.00 Ex 5,7 w/ 5,7,10,11 Cost: $18.00

Race 10:

(7) FEARLESS was best last time, tried to overcome a lazy start to finish nicely. Pletcher should have him on his toes for this. Wouldn’t argue if you wanted to single here but I’ll include a couple more. The game w/in the game is that Asmusseen takes stable rider off (10) GUN IT for Rosario. Not sure if it was the terrible ride last time or maybe the Owner had a say in it. Either way this Tapit will make some noise late. I’ll try to beat them both with (4) PLUS QUE PARFAIT. Was 5 lengths behind in last years Derby. His last race on the turf is not as bad as it looks. Has some quality and looking for Jose to find it. Last time he was up they came home with a nice check overseas.

$7.00 WPS 4 Cost: $21.00

$3.00 Ex Box 4,7,10 Cost: $18.00

Race 11:

Cox has a pair of Aces in here that are comfortable facing G1 competition. Take your pick as (1) JULIET FOXTROT and (2) BEAU RECALL both will be a handful. I’ll use them as win candidates for this G3. I’ll look for some value underneath, starting with (3) WINNING ENVELOPE. She ran ok last time passing tired runners but that feels like a public workout to me. Block has two strong breezes to have her ready for this one today. Not sure she can beat the top pair but can sure make it into the exacta. Same can be said for (8) ALTEA. Joel just missed his last two attempts with her this year and is hoping the third time will be the charm.