Churchill 5/29 Spot & Late Pick 3

Little Pete
May 29, 2020
3 min read

We are sticking to handicapping the races at Churchill through the weekend. We are also sticking to our two pick 3 play format today as well. You could combine the two plays and attack this pick 6, which who knows I may mess around and do that. I will be focusing on races 4-6 and Big Pete will be focusing on races 7-9. We will also have some vertical plays in each of those races to better hedge our tickets. GOOD LUCK.

Little Pete's Spot $0.50 Pick 3:

R4: 1, 2, 3, 7

R5: 1, 5, 8

R6: 3, 5, 8

Cost: $18.00

Big Pete's Late $0.50 Pick 3:

R7: 4, 5, 8

R8: 4, 9, 10, 11

R9: 1, 6, 9, 10

Cost: $24.00

Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:

Race 4:

I think the speed is going to come from (2) Victory Element in this one, and he will be chased early by (4) Paddy O'Dini. I will include (2) Victory Element in case no other horse can put in a good final drive down the stretch. I then landed on three others who I think will have a good stretch drive; (1) Zing Zang, (3) Dooley, and (7) Warrior's Dream. All three of these horses have shown the ability to have a late kick and I am not in love with any of the other favorites in this one, so going to try and sneak out of this one with a price.

$2.00 Ex 2,7 w/ 1,2,3,7 Cost: $12.00

Race 5:

My top selection in this one is going to be (8) Memorable who is getting some class relief and I think has plenty of horse to handle this field. To hedge a bit I will be including two others in this one to be up in the front the entire race and could have enough to overtake; they are (1) Sugoi who is getting grass for the first time and I think that translates well and (5) River Finn who will also seek the early lead and has enough speed to stay up there on grass.

$2.00 Ex Box 1,5,8 Cost: $12.00

$3.00 WPS 8 Cost: $9.00

Race 6:

(5) Tempers Rising is worth a single here with the class drop and the pedigree on this one. This horse has beaten better and loves this distance. But the purposes of hitting this one and covering my ass, I will include two more horses that have a chance to me. (3)DreamALilDreamOfU is coming in already having beaten (6) Strong Flag in the last race and could be improving second time out on dirt. (8) Envoutante is getting back to dirt and has shown that a sustained strong run at this distance is in this horse, and will be a tough contender here.

$2.00 Ex Box 3,5,8 Cost: $12.00

Big Pete's Late Pick 3:

Race 7:

(5) TROUBLING MOON was rolling along at the end of last year and makes his 2020 debut today. He cuts back to the 7F distance and clearly likes the Churchill dirt. Rusty calls on regular rider to steer him right. (8) HOG CREEK HUSTLE hasn’t lived up to his standards from last year yet, but with a couple of bullets and Rosario summoned, this leads me to believe we’ll see the Hog show some more Hustle. (4) BORRACHO is a classy individual that show up every so often. Has the numbers that will make him very competitive here.

$7.00 WPS 5 Cost: $21.00

$3.00 Ex Box 4,5,8 Cost: $18.00

Race 8:

(4) TOTALLY BOSS stands out too me here as he gets his 2020 campaign going. Rusty will have him ready to go so the layoff is not a concern. Some class relief and regular rider up makes him a single candidate. (11) CAROTARI draws in and attracts Jose. He has the speed to clear and control this so we’ll include. (9) LEINSTER also gets some class relief and worked side by side with the Boss on the 16th. He could be the main danger to his barn mate.

$3.00 Ex 4,9 w/ 4,9,11,12 Cost: $18.00

Race 9:

I’ll close out this Pk3 using four runners. (10) HEROS REWARD will cut back to sprinting and attracts Gaff for the ride. We won’t get the ML but still will be a decent price. (9) ALEX’S STRIKE may have been best last time but got himself into trouble. If he gets clear sailing, I like his chances. I’ll also include (1) THE BIG BLUFF and (6) BEBOP SHOES to add some value to the ticket as when horses drop to this level, they sometimes get brave and show up with a decent run.