Belmont & Churchill - May 1st Plays
- Little Pete
- May 1, 2021
- 9 min read
It's the First Saturday in May, Happy Derby day! We are excited for this fantastic day of racing and will have you covered for some NY plays and the great racing down in Kentucky. Big Pete is going to focus on Belmont today and look to cash some tickets. I am going to follow the money and the great horses down to Churchill. I am going to do a write-up of pick 6 sequence, races 7-12. I just wanted to make sure that we have the biggest races covered so we all can be a little prepared in where we invest our money. GOOD LUCK.
Churchill Downs:
Little Pete's $0.20 Pick 6:
R7: 4
R8: 3, 4, 8, 11
R9: 2, 4, 13, 14
R10: 2, 3, 4, 9
R11: 3, 4, 5, 9
R12: 1, 14, 15, 20 Cost: $ 204.80
*Favorites in each race colored in Purple*
Belmont:
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R9: 3, 7, 8, 10
R10: 1, 2, 3
R11: 2, 9, 11, 12 Cost: $ 48.00
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race : 4
Course: Belmont
There's two in here that jump off the page. Likely favorite (12) Scotto, added L1 for Rudy and dropped to this level in January. He responded with the best speed figure posted by any one in here. The only concern is the outside draw and wide trip. I'll try to beat him with (3) Dutchmen Forever. He couldn't hang on last time going slightly longer and he finally gets some needed help on his back with the addition of Cancel. We'll look to cash in on the generous 5:1 ML and use him with Scotto and a firster, Hot Doctor.
$ 5.00 WPS 3 Cost: $ 15.00
$ 3.00 Ex 3 w/ 2, 11, 12 Cost: $ 9.00
$ 3.00 DOUBLE 3 w/ 1, 2, 3 Cost: $ 9.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Days":
Race 3:
I’m against both favorites in the G3 Westchester so I’ll lean heavy on (4) LIMONITE to catch Mr. Buff and hold off Dr Post. With several speeds to push Buff, Limonite will get the perfect set up and the wide turns will help keep his momentum going.
$ 7.00 WPS 4 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 4 w/ 1, 6 Cost $ 14.00
Race 6:
The 8yr old gelding (1) PLAYWRIGHT will not go away. Just when you think it’s time to hang it up, he resurrects himself with a decent run. The mud may have helped last time but it also may have built confidence that this guy still wants to run. Most entered here just don’t win anymore so we’re hoping he found the Wright field to Play with.
$ 7.00 WPS 1 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 1 w/ 3, 5 Cost $ 14.00
Race 8:
The move to the turf for this War Front filly, (10) STRAFE, is what this gal has been waiting. Brown most likely used the main track starts as public workouts waiting for the turf to open up instead of shipping her South. I can’t imagine this gal going off at 5:1 as her ML odds suggests, but if she does, send it in.
$ 7.00 WPS 10 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 10 w/ 9, 11 Cost $ 14.00
$ 0.50 Late Pk4 - 10 w/ 3, 7, 10 w/ 1, 2, 6 w/ 2, 5, 9 Cost $ 9.00
Kentucky Derby Selection R12:
I’ll focus on two runners that will come from off the pace. There usually is pace in this race and I’ll let them go at it early and set up the closers. (6) O BESOS was five wide in both his derby preps and still managed to make runs to get close. This Orb wants more ground and the Derby offers that. He’s just starting to figure this game out. He made his debut on this track and sports two bullet works leading up to this race. The connection will are capable and the price will be very generous. (9) HOT ROD CHARLIE finished in front of O Besos but will likely have to come from off the pace today. Look for both of these colts to come running late.
$ 7.00 WPS 6 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Exacta 6, 9 w/ 6, 7, 9, 10 Cost $ 18.00
Churchill Downs:
Little Pete's Pick 6:
Race 7:
Take the lay-up. (4) Gamine is much the best in here and the distance is just not enough for me to consider anyone else in this field. Velazquez knows that to do with this horse and we should see a wire-to-wire victory in this one. This allows us to have more focus on closing out the other five legs!
$10.00 WIN 4 Cost: $10.00
Race 8:
I like (3) Jackie's Warrior to put some pressure on the field with her speed and this distance should suit his running style. The instructions will be to use the post position to his advantage and find the lead on the rail early. I think this horse is dangerous to wire the field, but believe (11) Noble Reflection is a horse to the outside who will have similar instructions early. Which leads me to (4) Defunded who I think will be able to stalk the early pace on the rail and then show off the speed late. I love Irad getting the mount and am making this horse my top play to run past horses late down the stretch. My last play is going to be (8) Dream Shake who I think will be waiting for the opportunity to run horses in front of him down. This horse has been consistently performing in here and I think with blistering fractions this horse will be extremely dangerous down the stretch.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 3,4 w/ 3,4,8,11 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 8,11 w/ 3,4,8,11 Cost: $6.00
Race 9:
I am playing there to be an early pace battle in this one which opens it up late to horses that I really like. (5) Du Jour is going to seek the lead and challenge others to compete. (10) Next I think will also challenge early for the lead as I think this is the best tactic for both of these horses to try and take this one. I think that this opens up the race to (2) WinFromWithin to run a big race on the rail in here to save ground and be extremely fresh come stretch drive. It also sets up well for (4) Annex who wants to close on a fast pace and gets the Irad bump today. (13) Scarlett Sky is in good form coming into this one and I think will be able to fan out wide come stretch drive and be a force late. (14) Palazzi is my bit of a price play here, but I think extremely dangerous. This horse is in great form and coming in after a bullet workout on the track. I think this horse will be another one storming down the stretch late and I think that type of run is going to be the winner in here.
$3.00 WPS 14 Cost: 9.00
$2.00 Ex 4,14 w/ 2,4,13,14 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 2,13 w/ 2,4,13,14 Cost: $6.00
Race 10:
This race has some story lines to it. Can the 8 year old, (9) Whitmore, remain on top of the game and just keep producing winning rides? Will (4) Flagstaff be able to come back against (9) Whitmore after losing to him two races back? Will I stop asking questions? YES. I really like (3) Basin in here who is showing improvement the last two times out and I think will benefit from a beneficial post position in this sprint. I think this horse will be able to find the rail early and continue to progress. (2) Mind Controlis another horse I like with the post position and his running style. I anticipate this horse to be able to navigate a ground saving trip and have plenty left in the tank to compete in here. (4) Flagstaff is coming in afer a win and gets Saez aboard this time. I think that bump puts this horse a little closer to the winner's circle and a must play for me. Last play will be (9) Whitmore who is just too consistently good to leave off the ticket for me.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: 9.00
$2.00 Ex 2,3 w/ 2,3,4,9 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 4,9 w/ 2,3,4,9 Cost: $6.00
Race 11:
Irad has not lost when he gets the mount on (3) Colonel Liam. This horse gets a favorable post position in here and I think is the most likely winner on paper in here. (5) Domestic Spending is the other in here who looks extremely tough to beat. This horse has already beaten (3) Colonel Liam, but the crap shoot down the stretch is going to be intense. I think both of these horses are logical plays and must include. I also like (4) Ivar to run a late charging race, but be more involved this time out. I think that this horse has the legs to outrun the two mentioned and will come down to the trip he gets; which on grass is vital. My last play will be an over looked (9) Ride a Comet. I think this horse will be ridden more aggressively from the gate to get a good position and I like Gaffalione on grass. Take a look at this horse to the outside and hope we can get this one home at a price.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 3,4 w/ 3,4,5,9 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 5,9 w/ 3,4,5,9 Cost: $6.00
Race 12:
Derby race. My top pick in here is going to be (1) Known Agenda. I think that this horse will be able to rush from the gate to get positioning and be able to handle the distance in this one. I don't think the plan will be to be on the lead in here and Irad is always able to find the lanes to run into. This horse is ascending at the right time and be able to catch the favorites late in here. (14) Essential Quality has the running style to win this one. This horse is adaptable and the large field and unfavorable post position will not hinder this horse. Luis is aggressive and this horse has the ability to be around the lead or right behind it and still run a big race. This horse is a must play in here. (15) Rock Your World is another horse that is a must play with running style. This horse is able to sit behind the pace and run on with it late. I expect Rosario to be able to find the lane to run into and not get in this horses way. My last play will be the price play of (20) Bourbonic. This horse came from the clouds last time out and will be extremely strong late in this one. I think this horse is worth a try to run a similar race as last time and be a late contender.
$5.00 WPS 1 Cost: $15.00
$2.00 Ex 1,14 w/ 1,14,15,20 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 15,20 w/ 1,14,15,20 Cost: $6.00
Belmont
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 9:
(3) JEMOGRAPHY has been on some kind of roll finishing 1st or 2nd in his last 10 races. He is facing a decent group of runners today but his last race is best in here. Bravo subs in for all the out of town jocks. (10) PETE’S PLAY CALL for obvious reasons and he’s fast. He always gives you a run for your money. Rudy has another in here. (7) RYAN’S CAT has been awesome since the claim three back. He figures to sit behind (8) SECRET RULES and get the first jump on the above mentioned runners.
$ 7.00 WPS 7 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 3, 7 w/ 3, 7, 8, 10 Cost $ 18.00
Race 10:
(1) MAGIC ATTITUDE is the pick as she won easy on this course against G1 material. She couldn’t quite get there when she tried 9F in her last two. The 11F fits perfect today. (2) MUTAMAKINA has done nothing wrong in her two US races and gets the acid test today. Both of Brown’s runners like to come from far back and they both make up ground quickly through the lane. I prefer the newcomer (3) ORGLANDES over (6) MY SISTER NAT. We’ll try to get by with just three and leave the Pletcher favorite off.
$ 7.00 WPS 1 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 1, 2 w/ 1, 2, 3, 6 Cost $ 18.00
Race 11:
(2) EMMA AND I just missed against weaker but she’s shown some life on both her turf races. She closed well on this course in her debut. (9) KISS AND RUN will be the main contender as she ships back to face fellow NY Bred fillies. A quick bullet last week and Manny up will make this combo the filly to beat. (11) FREEDOM MACHINE also ships in picks up Lezcano. She may have found the right field and distance will not be an issue for this English Channel. (12) BEWPS tries turf for the first time. She got bet hard in her last two attempts so there may be some chatter about this filly. Maybe the turf is what she wanted all along.
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