Belmont 9/27 Pick 3 Plays
- Little Pete
- Sep 27, 2020
- 5 min read
Big Pete was able to close the card with a nice pick 3 play and we both are looking to feed off that momentum. We are going to remain consistent and play a pair of pick 3 plays today at Belmont. I will be covering races 5-7, and Big Pete will be covering races 8-10. We also will have our "Play of the Day" for a race that we think we can profit off of. Make sure to subscribe to the newsletter to receive notification of new blog posts and a weekly email. GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R5: 2, 3, 6, 7
R6: 2, 3, 5, 6
R7: 1, 6, 8, 9
Cost: $64.00
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R8: 2, 4, 10, 11
R9: 1, 2, 3
R10: 1, 3, 4, 10
Cost: $48.00
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 1:
I really like (4) I'm Fine in the first race to run a big race on grass. This horse has been improving each trip out and I love the move back to grass for this horse. I expect this horse to be forwardly placed in a race that lacks true speed and will be able to have a convincing drive down the stretch. I think we can play a nice exacta and double with this horse.
$5.00 WPS 4 Cost: $15.00
$3.00 Ex 4 w/ 1,3,6 Cost: $9.00
$1.00 Ex 1,3,6 w/ 1,3,4,6 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Double 4 w/ 2,3,6,8 Cost: $8.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 2:
This is the perfect race to take a shot at a price. Most of the attention will be on Brown’s runner Rakeez, and Noda’s colt Mystery Bank. Clement too, is offering up Mini P as well. These trainers are looking to unload so I want no part of them. I can’t pass on (3) ALLEY OOP JOHNNY. Flower Alley, his grandpa, won two yesterday, and the Animal Kingdom’s can usually run all day. I think Davis’ instructions will be… go to the front and try to bottom out this field coming into the stretch.
$10.00 WPS 3 Cost: $30.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 5:
I am anticipating an early pace battle betweem (2) Robin Sparkles and (8) Princess Fawzia. I will only be including (2) Robin Sparkles in my play as I think the pace will take its toll more on (8) Princess Fawzia and will expose this horse to closers. (3) Kitten by the Sea is my top selection in here as I am expecting this horse to be sitting right off this pace and be able to save ground throughout to have a convincing stretch drive. I also like (7) Five Alarm Robin coming in off of a win and will be aggressively ridden early. I think with a blistering early pace it will set this horse up for a nice stretch drive. My last play will be a horse I see sitting farther off the pace in (6) Overheated. This horse does not have much success on grass to date, but I think this race will play to her strength of passing tiring horses.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 2,3 w/ 2,3,6,7,8 Cost: $16.00
Race 6:
I have fallen for (3) Forty Zip in this spot and think that Johnnie V has the winner here. I think this horse will be able to have a more sustained run throughout in here with a firm turf track. I like this horse being forwardly placed early and be able to run by her foes late. (5) Harlem Heights is another horse that I like in here switching surfaces for the first time in her short career. This horse has plenty of pedigree on the dam side for turf and should show us great form first time out on the surface and a must play for me. (6) Sengeontacket should be the favorite come post time for good reason. This horse has the most experience and consistently runs well. I expect this horse to improve third time out on grass. My last play will be the (2) L'Indiscret who is the morning line favorite, but I do not love in this spot. This horse has put out two 90+ beyer speeds in her last two and those races are impressive, but I think the pace will be less favorable and this horse will have to work for a great trip.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 3,5 w/ 2,3,5,6 Cost: $12.00
Race 7:
The softball in this race is to single the Klaravich Stables/Chad Brown horse in (6) Highly Motivated, but I think there are some impressive firsters in here that I do not feel comfortable doing that. I am going to include (6) Highly Motivated on my ticket with that impressive first start on a muddy track and receiving an 85 beyer speed; I would not be smart if I excluded. I am just anticipating a huge run from the $170K purchase from the Asmussen barn in (1) Time Leverage. This horse has been consistently training well and I think the inside post will allow this horse to find the lead early and not look back. That said, I also will be including the two Pletcher horses on the outside who sold for a good amount as well. (9) Cost Average is my preferred horse of the two, but (8) Known Agenda has been training lights out and would not surprise me to run a big one in here.
$3.00 WPS 1 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,6 w/ 1,6,8,9 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 8,9 w/ 1,6,8,9 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 8:
Two solid efforts this year for (10) FREEWHEELER should make this City Zip, third time’s the charm. Returns to Belmont where he posted his best race to date before running into JackandNoah. Look for Jose to stalk this time, then, come with their run. The one I want to try and beat Free with is (4) THREE OUTLAWS. He clearly
likes grass better and the extra distance gives Franco some more time to get this one in gear. Jr tried to close from Union Ave last time so Manny gets the call today. (2) MORE LIKE IT and (11) UNCLE GEORGE will try to pass them all late. Seems like too much to do but if one can save some ground, that may be enough or at least climb into the exacta.
$7.00 WPS 4 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex Ex 4,10 w/ 2,4,10,11 Cost: $18.00
Race 9:
(3) POP A CHOC’s maiden score here in July jumps off the page when compared to the rest of this field. Both Spa tries, she just got beat by better fillies. Now this Bernardini gets the wide turns to sustain her long stride. A possible single if you want to save some bankroll. (2) MRS. DANVERS will like the distance and she gets her regular rider up. She’ll come with a run, buts need Pop to back up some. It’s worth noting that Pletcher has two in here. One may be a rabbet for the other. (1) MRS. S has been off for some time but has been working fast in the morning. She’s familiar with Big Sandy, so if the top two don’t bring their A game, She’s the one that can run them down late.
$7.00 Ex 3 w/ 1,2 Cost: $14.00
$3.00 Ex 1,2 w/ 1,2,3 Cost: $12.00
Race 10:
Maker is trying to impress Repole by getting (10) LIDO KEY into the winners circle first start off the claim. He enters a rabbet, aka More Mango, to give Lido a fast pace and target and gives Rosario the “Keys”. (1) MARQUET LEGACY is a little interesting as her Belmont races are much better than her Spa visits. She won’t mind the rabbet either and should get first jump on Lido. Johnny V isn’t easy to pass through the stretch when he gets a head start. The one I want in here is (4) POSITIVE SKEW. She was bet heavy in both her Spa races but couldn’t work out a winning trip. Her Jun 27th run on this course beats these if she can do it again. She loses 9 lbs for that race with the bug up and the pace sets her up perfect. I’M ALL IN.
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