Belmont 9/25 Pick 3 Plays
- Little Pete
- Sep 25, 2020
- 5 min read
Happy Friday everyone! We have some live racing today at Belmont and we are keying in on a pair of pick 3 plays. I am going to focus in on races 5-7, while Big Pete will be focusing in on races 8-10. We also will have our "Play of the Day" on a race we believe that we can maximize vertical and/or horizontal plays on. Make sure to subscribe to the newsletter to receive blog notifications and a weekly email. GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R5: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9
R6: 1
R7: 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12
Cost: $36.00
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R8: 1, 8
R9: 5, 6, 7, 9
R10: 1, 3, 9, 12
Cost: $32.00
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 1:
I always love betting a little more on Race 1 to get a little bankroll started. The favorite, (3) Freedom Force, looks to be a "force" (Sorry) in here but I like the Jeremiah Englehart horse to make a splash second time out. I think that we can cash in on a nice exacta with these two horses with (2) Tri Saint Lorenzo closing to hit the board and (5) Brees Bayou to be closing late as well.
$5.00 WPS 6 Cost: $15.00
$3.00 Ex 3,6 w/ 2,3,5,6 Cost: $18.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 3:
Both (1) VICAR’S LEGEND and (1A) MISSLE BOMB are the perfect two for one deal. Missle will go early and Vicar will close late. They should get overlooked in the betting as we have Rudy and Noda sending out two runners, fresh off their claims, that will attract a lot of attention. If Carmouche can clear this bunch from the nine hole, they won’t catch him.
$10.00 WPS 1/1A Cost: $30.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 5:
I am playing this race out in my head with (6) Break Beat finding a contested lead early with a bunch of horses stalking and waiting for their opening around the last turn. My top selection is going to be an improved trip second time out from the layoff on (4) Gunman. I think this horse will be poised to run a big race and will not tire out late in this one. (1) Gimme Some Mo is another Pletcher horse that looks poised to run a big race with this class drop, so will need to include. (2) Lokoya Road is a consistent runner based on past performances and I like horses that run well to the wire. I think this horse will be in a good position come stretch time and have a chance to win it. (3) Starting Over is a bit of a wild card play here for me as I do not like investing my money on horses trying a surface for the first time. This horse has improved in both career starts and this could be a graduating effort and I want to make sure we have him on our ticket. (8) Summer Tune has Rosario on grass in here and has a running style that Rosario excels at. I expect this horse to be sitting a little further back from the contested lead and swing wide come stretch time and have a say as to who wins this one. Last play will be the favorite, (9) Bay Street Money, who will be closing strongly down the stretch and a strong contender in this one.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 4,9 w/ 1,2,3,4,8,9 Cost: $20.00
Race 6:
I am singling with the $180K horse in (1) Storm Shooter. This horse has some great workouts out of the gate and I do not anticipate Jose Ortiz to mess around in this one. This horse should find the early lead in here and wire the field. I think that this is a tune up race for better things and do not want to look elsewhere. I will tip my cap to another horse if he is beaten in here.
$20.00 WIN 1 Cost: $20.00
$4.00 Ex 1 w/ 2,3,5 Cost: $12.00
Race 7:
We are going to spread here as well with the single in the previous race. My top selection in here is going to be (5) Skye Snow who should enjoy the distance cut back and have an aggressive ride from Lezcano. (7) Ava K's Girl is another horse in here who I think will run a big race. This horse is dropping in to a claiming tag for the first time and this could wake her up. (8) Strike Magic is another horse that I think will enjoy the cut back in distance. This horse has the late speed that I like and has been breaking well from the gate; which I think plays well to this horse being the strongest finisher. (9) Mo Me Mo My took my money last time out and going to give her another chance in here moving back to grass. Doug O'Neil was heating up later in the Saratoga meet and should translate over to Belmont. (10) Henni Penny is dropping in to a claiming race for the first time and has run well against winners, so this horse should be live in here. (12) Alley to Calvary is my last play with Rosario aboard. I think this horse will enjoy being on the outside of everyone and be able to save ground throughout with a tactical ride from Joel.
$3.00 WPS 5 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 5,9 w/ 5,7,8,9,10,12 Cost: $20.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 8:
We will only use two in here to kick off this late Pk3. (1) BLACKJACK DEWEY is your likely winner as he came up just short of beating a decent one from Brown and a rejuvenated Danny California in his last two. Most of these have had many chances at this level and they’re still here. Basically has found the right group today. The other is (8) BOURBON BAY. He’s been facing slightly better throughout his career and did beat the afore mentioned Danny. He’ll be the threat and he seems to like Big Sandy with two decent runs here.
$7.00 WPS 8 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 1,8 w/ 1,4,8 Cost: $12.00
Race 9:
Noda is too hot to leave off the ticket, so (6) FIG JELLY is a must use as he showed improvement fresh off the claim last time. He’s expected to have company up front though, with the Brown runner (7) SAYYAAF. Jose will likely try to wire them. (5) READYFORPRIMETIME will also want the lead so something has to give. That’s where (9) GHOUL comes into play. Rosario may have feel asleep last time and left him with too much to do settling for 2nd last time. Look for these two to be a little closer early and wait for the speeds to back up late.
$7.00 WPS 9 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 6,9 w/ 5,6,7,9 Cost: $18.00
Race 10:
I’m looking for the Joel late double in the finale but we’ll throw in a couple of savors. (9) PRAIRE TALES is the top choice here as she didn’t get away cleanly in her debut and still managed to beat half the field and was within a few lengths of the two favorites in today. I like the outside draw for her 2nd start and the extra distance will help. (1) BONUS BABY woke up last time on the drop and surface switch. She looks to be the main danger here but she didn’t show much speed and needs to work out a trip from the rail. (12) DREAM CHASING also woke up when dropped two back and seems to have maintained her form this summer. She may find herself all alone up front which may make her tough to pass if she can get a breather. (3) LADY TEUFLESBERG is very interesting to me and I’ll try to get this one into the exacta. Davis chooses this one after she was competitive last time going longer before fading. Now she cuts back to the 6F sprint and has posted faster times than these NY Breds she’s facing today.
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