Belmont 7/12 Plays of the Day
- Little Pete
- Jul 12, 2020
- 5 min read
We are both back to handicapping Belmont on the final day of racing there with a mandatory PK6 payout today! We are very excited for the opening day at Saratoga this Thursday, but will not overlook this hittable card. I will be focusing in on races 4-6, and Big Pete will be focusing in on races 7-9. The two tickets do cover the PK6 if you are feeling dangerous and want to play. Big Pete is also carrying in some momentum with the PK3 ticket hit yesterday and not to brag, but I went 4 for 5 on my PK5 play at Keeneland; but with some vertical plays to go net positive. Make sure to subscribe to the newsletter to receive notification of new blog posts and a weekly blog email. GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R4: 2, 3, 9, 10
R5: 1, 9, 11
R6: 1, 2, 4, 8
Cost: $48.00
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R7: 1, 4, 7, 9
R8: 3, 4, 6
R9: 5, 6, 8, 11
Cost: $48.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 4:
I really like (3) Klickitat to get this one done under the ride of Javier Castellano. This horse has the speed and class to get to the early lead and have enough left in the tank to beat this field. I won't start off the ticket with a single here, as it still is a claiming race. (2) Pier Forty is an interesting horse for me here with the class drop and moving back to the mile distance; this time on grass. I think that this horse should have a nice lane from the gate to stalk the leaders and should put some type of late push in and could be good enough to win it. I also like second time on grass for (9) High Tone with Irad Ortiz aboard. This horse as well as (10) Michael's Bad Boy are going to shoot to the early lead right from the gate and a firm track could make all the difference with these speed horses.
$4.00 WPS 3 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex Box 2,3,9,10 Cost: $12.00
Race 5:
This one turned in to a trainer play for me on three of the horses. The inside horse, (1) OnTheWayToNevrland, should have first jump in this sprint being the closest to the rail and will force the outside speed to exert a little more energy. This horse has plenty of pedigree to win at this level, so is a must play for me from the Wesley Ward barn. Linda Rice of the claim is extremely dangerous and she has Jose Lezcano aboard (9) Le General who has benefited with some jockeys leaving town for a couple of days, and will be bringing in some confidence. Cristophe Clement is dropping (11) Tenure in to this claiming race after being on the shelf for 9 months. My thought is that Clement may be looking to catch a check for this horse and this was the best level for him to do that.
$4.00 WPS 1 Cost: $12.00
$2.00 Ex Box 1,9,11 Cost: $12.00
Race 6:
(1) DancingWthDaffodls has shown enough in the last two for me to earn a spot on my ticket. This horse should have a little more room to use the closing speed and could hit the wire first. (8) Drynachan should like the small stretch out and I think will be up towards the front stalking early and have a second gear down the stretch to challenge for this one. I will also include (2) Moana's Tale who is getting some distance and class relief, and has the speed handler Karmouche aboard. This horse could look to try and steal this one with a wire to wire bid, and do not want to lose to that. My last play is going to be (4) Ancient Brown who I think has ran well, but has ran in to fast races. I think that the luck will change for this horse and the time fractions won't be as blistering and this horse will have more left to challenge at the end.
$3.00 WPS 8 Cost: $9.00
$1.00 Ex Box 1,2,4,8 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 7:
I’ll focus on the two Violence runners entered. (7) VIOLENT DELIGHTS worked out a trip to run past the tiring speeds last time and Jr will try to do the same today. A similar effort puts him in the winners circle. I prefer the other Violence (9) THENORTHREMEMBERS to get it done here. He drops and moves to the dirt. Both dirt attempts were sprinting but, this guy wants to go longer. Meets the right group and gets Davis. Rudy has given up on (4) SOUTHERN BRIGADE. Drops him to the bottom in hopes of getting claimed to avoid shipping him North where he’ll have no chance. Odd spot though, as his dirt form is awful. (1) PAYNTER’S PRIZE is a little interesting as he too drops to get a check before the action switches to the Spa. His maiden win back in Dec makes him playable.
$3.00 Ex 7,9 w/ 1,4,7,9 Cost: $18.00
Race 8:
A 12F marathon on the turf and I’ll focus on three runners to get us through. (6) OLYMPIC GAMES looked good first out in this Country when just missed down South. She’s facing some professional routers here so she will need to improve off that effort. Clement knows that and summons Irad to get her there. (4) LEMON ZIP was as consistent as they come last year, then something went wrong in Feb. Returns now posting solid works for her return. If she returns with last years numbers, she’ll be a handful today. (3) BEAU BELLE did everything right last time and just missed. She fits this race and oval to a T and I’ll lean on her the most here. The more distance the better for this long winded Mare. (9) WEGETSDAMUNNYS got the money last time but, now faces better Mares. Clement is doing things right this meet so We’ll include as well.
$7.00 WPS 3 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 3,4 w/ 3,4,6,9 Cost: $18.00
Race 9:
We’ll spread a little here as these MCL are very unpredictable. I liked how (8) PIPPI responded to the move to turf. Only got beat 3 lengths and didn’t have the cleanest trip. Jr gets the call now and I think this gal is sitting on a big run today. (5) DREAM CHASING and (6) HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH finished right next to each other last race and FUSI, who beat them by a nose, returned this week to win. (11) SARATOGA LULLABY took some money last time and didn’t have the best start but, made up some ground late. She may be overlooked here and gets Lezcano, who won a bunch yesterday.
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