Belmont 4/30 Early Pick 5 & Late Pick 3
- Little Pete
- Apr 30, 2021
- 6 min read
HUGE weekend of racing in here with the Kentucky Oaks today and the Derby tomorrow. We are going to remain focused on this write-up for Belmont, but could possibly tweet out some Churchill plays. I am going to attack the early pick 5, races 1-5, today and Big Pete will be closing the card with a late pick 3, races 7-9. We also will have our "Play of the Day" on a race we would like to try and improve the bankroll on. We appreciate you taking a look at the blog and hope that we all can make it a profitable day. GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $0.50 Early Pick 5:
R1: 2, 6, 7, 8
R2: 3, 4, 8
R3: 2, 4, 7
R4: 1, 10
R5: 6, 8, 11
Cost: $108.00
*Favorites in each race colored in Purple*
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R7: 2, 6, 8
R8: 1, 3, 7, 8
R9: 3, 5, 8, 9
Cost: $48.00
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 6:
(6) Irresistible Girl has been improving each time out on the track and remains in the MSW level, which is a good sign for me. I also like the firster (3) Cali Fitz in here to run a nice race in here. I am going to play off of the two of these horses with (1) Dorothy's The Boss and (8) Vivazano to run behind these two.
$3.00 Ex 3,6 w/ 1,3,6,8 Cost: $18.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 1:
(2) REMOANE faced winners for the first time in her last and called it a day coming into the stretch. Englehart saw something and claimed her and now goes back to the 6F distance. She came to the neck of the likely favorite in here, Hey It’s Tati, but the slow pace was too much to overcome. She’ll get another crack at that one with her new trainer. Her races are faster than the rest of the group and 6:1 ML feels like a bargain. We’ll key her with some long shots underneath and try to build our bankroll for the later races.
Both (4) Gagliano and (8) Empress Luciana are likely to sit back early and try to work themselves into the exacta.
$ 7.00 WPS 2 Cost $ 14.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 2 w/ 4, 8 Cost $ 14.00
We’ll also use Remoane in R1 and try to cash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
(3) Daddy Knows and (7) Sicilia Mike look solid in the 3rd
$ 7.00 Double 2 w/ 3, 7 Cost $ 14.00
Little Pete's Early Pick 5:
Race 1:
Big scratch in here to (1) Gilda Marie, so I think it opens the race up to a possible wire to wire effort from (6) Hey it's Tati. I think that Manny will not mess around in here and find the lead early and challenge the foes to pass late. I do like the thought of both (7) Big Al's Gal and (8) Empress Luciana running a stalking race around the turn and have a late stretch drive to compete for this one. My last play will be (2) Remoane as Big Pete did a nice write up on her above and do not want him to have the ability to say "I told you so."
$3.00 Ex 2,6 w/ 2,6,7,8 Cost: $18.00
Race 2:
My top play is going to be (4) FinancialStability who gets back to the level in which he has shown the best ability and the others in this field do not scream to me that they are that much superior. I do like (3) Daddy Knows to run an aggressive race in here and will include, but this horse seems to be vulnerable late and (4) FinancialStability has shown the closing ability. My last play will be the big drop in class on (8) BlindWillie McTell who has been training well leading up to this one and attracts Cancel in this one. Linda Rice wins a lot of claiming races and this could be a horse ready to run after a little time off.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 3,4,8 Cost: $12.00
Race 3:
My top pick in here is going to be (2) Ajaaweed who has under-performed up until now but I think will be set up well from the post position and the early pace that I expect. I think that Cancel will be saving ground and energy throughout and have a fresh horse come stretch drive in this marathon race. (4) Musical Heart is another horse to keep your eye on as this horse as I like horses that have shown sustainability at the distance they are running and should only improve this time out. The bullet workout leading in also pushes me to pull the trigger on this horse. Last play will be (7) Air Attack who is coming in after beating (4) Musical Heart and could have his sights set on repeating. This horse should be able to navigate a trip in here from the outside and has shown the ability to close strongly already.
$3.00 WPS 2 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 2,4,7 Cost: $12.00
Race 4:
I am taking a bit of a stand in this one and only going to go with two in here. I really like (1) Humpday in here to be in great form and show an improved effort moving back to grass. I think that Manny will find a nice rail position early in here and the horse is in good enough form to sustain a great run late in here. I also fell for (10) Wicked Easy to the outside. I think that this horse is ready to get back to grass and show off the late speed I know this horse possesses (Somewhere). I am going to trust these two horses to get us into the final leg.
$5.00 Ex Box 1,10 Cost: $10.00
Race 5:
I am all in on (8) Moana's Tale in here. I think that this horse is set up well to find the rail early and show the speed throughout. Jose Lezcano is an aggressive rider from the gate and will not mess around in this one. (11) Kept Waiting also looks to be contender in here as we should expect a similar ride as stated above. Manny will not mess around and let this horse do what she likes to do, find the lead. I think it could be these two horses throughout and will be a tough catch. With that said, I am going to play a horse I think has the ability to make up ground quickly late. (6) Kinky Sox is getting back to grass and coming in after an impressive workout. I think this horse shakes her recent performances and runs a big one in here.
$3.00 WPS 8 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 6,8,11 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 7:
Shug has been nursing (2) CREED along. He was headed for bigger and better things in the Fall but something must have happened and they needed time. His March 6th return proves he is back with a nice closing effort sprinting. He prefers distance and now gets it with one turn. The race should set him up to run by them all. (6) LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE ran well against Mystic Guide in the Jim Dandy but that was the only race that stands out with this guy. He does have a win on Big Sandy and was only 2 lengths from Creed when they met back in July. Brown has the favorite (8) HIGHEST HONORS but this guy hasn’t been seen since Travers 19’. That’s a lot to ask but the connections are capable. We’ll use defensively and include.
$7.00 WPS 2 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 2,6 w/ 2,5,6,8 Cost: $18.00
Race 8:
Brown again with the favorite but this gal looks the part. (8) MINAUN makes her US debut in this 6F sprint and may have found the right field. She’ll likely stalk the speeds and pick them up late. (3) UNION GABLES has speed, Pletcher and a good 2nd on this course in a G3. If she is left alone up front, Manny can carry her home through the stretch. (7) FETCHING has a few races on her resume that stack up well with this group. Lezcano has two 2nd place finishes with her on this course. I’ll look to the rail and try to sneak (1) RIVENDELL into the conversation. She won easy here in her debut and then tried to go long. Mott gave her some time after that. She needed her last and now returns to Belmont with a hot trainer. She’s likely to save some ground and tip out for the drive..
$7.00 WPS 1 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 1,8 w/ 1,3,7,8 Cost: $18.00
Race 9
I like two speeds and two closers in the finale. (9) SWEET MELANIA has shown speed going longer and now cuts back here. I don’t see that as a problem for her to control it all the way. (8) FLOWER POINT likes to come with a run late. She comes in from California and Shug has had some time with her. She’s working well in the AM and should come late on the scene. I’ll lean on the other closer (5) SHE’S MY TYPE. She was sprinting against some good ones and managed a win and a 2nd in both of her NY races. Something went wrong at Kentucky Downs and she ends up back in NY for her 21’ debut. Big bullet last week as Clement has her ready to go. (3) LADY LAWYER cuts back which is what she likes to do. It’s Brown and Cancel in her corner as well.
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