Belmont 10/2 Pick 3 Plays
- Little Pete
- Oct 2, 2020
- 5 min read
Big Pete has been on some kind of roll these past two weeks and he is asking me to step up a bit. No problem, I can take a little heat. We are going to remain consistent and play a pair of pick 3 plays, as well as our "Play of the Day." I will be keying in on races 5-7, while Big Pete will try to remain hot handling races 8-10. Make sure to subscribe to the newsletter to receive new blog posts and a weekly blog emailed. GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R5: 2, 4
R6: 2, 5, 8, 10, 11
R7: 1, 2, 4, 5
Cost: $40.00
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R8: 3, 5, 6
R9: 4, 6, 7
R10: 1, 5, 8, 10
Cost: $36.00
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 4:
I think that we should play off of (1) Back Channel in here. This horse has shown the most on the course and should hit the board. The Chad Brown horse in here is interesting, (4) Starfront, and I will include with exacta play but I know we will not get good value for this horse. An interesting play in here for me is the first time starter (2) Tactical Move who has the the sire pedigree to run well first time out and her mother ran a good second in a similar sprint first time out. I also am interested in the horse with a year off in (6) Undine. The workout routine is consistent and looks like this horse is ready to hit the tracks. I like that this horse is dropped in to a similar level from the first career start. I am taking it as this horse has not regressed throughout the training and running well.
$4.00 WPS 2 Cost: $12.00
$3.00 Ex 2,6 w/ 1,2,4,6 Cost: $18.00
$2.00 Ex 1 w/ 2,4,6 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 3:
I was considering taking a shot in the 7th with the Chad Summers filly but I’ll let Lil Pete grow some more grey hair as that one came up tough in his Pk3 sequence. I’ll take an easier spot and play the more logical runners in R3. (5) SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL returned this summer as a new filly as she’s within a length of being 3 for 3 this year. Weaver gave her an extra two weeks off for this and she looks poised to run big here. Castellano can go or sit just off and make their run late. We’ll put her on top and let the closers come late to grab the place. The old Mare (8) JC’S SHOOTING STAR moves back in against her own state breds and (11) THE IMPORTANT ONE just missed catching “GAL” the last time they met.
$10.00 Ex 5 w/ 8,11 Cost: $20.00
$3.00 Ex 8,11 w/ 5,8,11 Cost: $12.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 5:
I landed on two horses in here to start the first leg of the pick 3. I think (2) Daddy Knows has a good chance of wiring this field at this level and I do not see another horse that will battle early to tire this horse out. The steep class drop scares me a bit, but I am taking it as Linda Rice is looking for a win. For coverage in case (2) Daddy Knows does get some early challengers, I will also include (4) BobbyFromThePalm. I think this horse will like getting back to 7 furlongs again this time out and be able to sit off the pace just a bit to have a strong stretch drive.
$2.00 Ex 2,4 w/ 1,2,4,7,9 Cost: $16.00
Race 6:
This is going to be a highly competitive race and I do not want to get knocked out in this one, which is why I am going five horses deep. (2) SucceedAndSurpass has ran big beyer speeds in previous races that he is running down the field late and could hit the wire first this time out. (5) Gauguin is my top selection in here with an improved trip with the extra distance. I think this horse is exiting a good race to run well in this one and will be in great form. (8) Junkanoo has the Chad Brown bump and Lezcano is a terrific rider to have on this horse who seems to be farther back from the break. Lezcano will allow this horse to find a winnable position early and that could be all the difference this horse needs. (10) Willing to Speed is going to be sent to the lead and challenge others to pass late. These races seem to be more mental for the riders and they do not like the lead early, which allows the horse in front to have an uncontested lead and head start down the stretch. (11) Doswell will be similar as (10) Willing to Speed in that he will want the lead early, but this horse has adaptability to sit off the pace and just keep coming late.
$3.00 WPS 5 Cost: $9.00
$1.00 Ex 2,5,8 w/ 2,5,8,10,11 Cost: $12.00
Race 7:
We will close the ticket with four horses. Experience matters in these races and the two horses with said experience look to be a handful. (2) Lutescoot N Boogie will continue to improve this third time out and could find her footing in this one. (5) Malibu Luna is my top pick in here form what she has already shown on the course and will only improve. I am expecting a big run from the (1) BustInMyGroove in here with the pedigree. I think that this horse has been consistently training well and will be able to find her position early from the break and run a big race first time out. (4) My Delicious is a price horse in here that I really think has a chance to upset here. This horse has also been consistently training well and the pedigree also leans towards a big performance first time out.
$3.00 WPS 5 Cost: $9.00
$1.00 Ex Box 1,2,4,5 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 8:
(5) BASQUIAT tried the turf last time and got the show. That should set this Brown runner for a top performance today. The American Pharoah has taken to the turf and this guy looks the part. May have to settle for the low odds but is a must use to survive. The Uncle Mo (3) PLOT THE DOTS, scares me a little and that’s who I’ll take a shot with. He ran ok two back in his first turf try and didn’t disappoint. Castellano will likely try to get first jump on Basquiat and hold him off. (6) IRISH MIAS tried G3 material last time and now gets a slight class relief.
$7.00 WPS 3 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 3,5 w/ 3,5,6 Cost: $12.00
Race 9:
I’ll focus on two here. (7) LOOKIN FOR TROUBLE looks to be the lone speed to me. I’m thinking this one will be able to dictate the fractions in his favor and hold them off late. He tired late in the Funny Cide but then followed that with a nice bullet last week. If left alone, they won’t catch him today. The closer that seems to be improving is (4) EAGLE ORB. He just missed in that Funny Cide and looks as if the 7F fits perfect. Jose switches to this one which indicates all systems go.
$7.00 WPS 7 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 4,7 w/ 4,6,7 Cost: $12.00
Race 10:
(8) MONEY IN THE BANK will be a decent price and has turf races on his resume that match up to these. I’ll use on top on the switch back to turf. (10) SHANDIAN wasn’t that far back against many of these in his last few races. Switches to the bug to carry less weight and will also be a price. (1) BOOM BOOM KABOOM will inherit the favorite role with the scratch and will come late as usual. Maybe he found the right field. (5) FRAT might find himself all alone early on and that’s a major advantage when we get to this level. May forget to stop.
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