Belmont 10/10 Pick 3 Plays
- Little Pete
- Oct 10, 2020
- 6 min read
Big Pete is coming in to today's card after a $700+ PK3 winner yesterday. We both have a PK3 hit this week and will look to use that momentum into today's five stake day. I will be focusing in on races 6-8, and Big Pete will be focusing in on races 9-11. We also will have our "Play of the Day" to try and maximize a race we see as hittable. Make sure to subscribe to the newsletter to receive notification of new blog posts and weekly emails sent to your email. GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R6: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8
R7: 3, 4, 7, 12
R8: 1, 2, 3, 6
Cost: $80.00
*Top selections in each race highlighted in purple*
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R9: 1, 2, 4
R10: 1, 2, 3
R11: 2, 7, 9, 11
Cost: $36.00
*Top selections in each race highlighted in purple*
Little Pete's "Pick of the Day":
Race 4:
I am going to give (5) Reinvestment Risk another chance against (4) Jackie's Warrior. We should anticipate improvement from (5) Reinvestment Risk in here who did close well against his foe late last time out, but let him drift a little too far away. I anticipate Irad to keep a little closer chase going around the turn and be able to close stronger this time out. I do not see much speed in here other than these two. One thing that I think could happen is that (1) Ambivalent is sent to the early lead in here and that could open up (4) Jackie's Warrior late if it becomes an early speed battle. I think it is worth the "risk"...
$7.00 WPS 5 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 5 w/ 1,3,4,6 Cost: $12.00
$2.00 Ex 4,6 w/ 4,5,6 Cost: $8.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 2:
All the focus will be on ROBIN SPARKLE in this one. She has two easy wins in both turf tries and will take all the money. This will make the others a great value play. I have to try and beat her with (10) JEN’S BATTLE today. The 1M she tried last time may have been too far as she made a early move, then couldn’t sustain it. The winner of that race tries G2 fillies later today. The cut back to 6F and the addition of Irad makes them worth a shot at this 10:1 ML.
$10.00 WPS 10 Cost: $30.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 6:
This is going to be a race we should look back at to find some future winners, because only one can win. (3) Newbomb is the logical play here and needs to be on our ticket. Founder graduated in to Gr.1 company at Keeneland and Highly Motivated broke his maiden next time out at 6 1/2 furlongs. We should expect this horse to be live in here and a must play. With that said, I really like the four horses on the outside in here. (5) Nova Rags is going to be my price play in here as this horse has been training lights out and I think will be able to sustain a big run first time out. (8) Risk Taking is another firster in here that I really think will flourish first time out. Irad will enjoy being on the outside of the speed and be able to let the horse find his place early and will run them all down late. (6) Overtook is the stablemate to (4) Newcomb and gets Jose Ortiz aboard on his debut. I think this horse could run to his pedigree and will be on the ticket. Last play will be (7) Weyburn who I really like the consistently good workouts leading in to this one. I can't picture how this race is going to play out other than (4) Newcomb will find the early lead, so I think this horse showing speed in the morning is a signal of where this horse will be early. It will come down to if the horse has enough late to sustain a big run.
$3.00 WPS 8 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 3,8 w/ 3,5,6,7,8 Cost: $16.00
$1.00 Ex 5,6,7 w/ 3,5,6,7,8 Cost: $12.00
Race 7:
Experience matters in these maiden special weights and we need to have (4) Hardison on our ticket in here. This horse put up an 83 beyer speed first time out and was closing strongly at this distance and surface last time out. (7) Connagh's Quay is a firster that I really like in here to run big. Chad Brown is poised to have a very good day at Belmont and cannot leave him off our ticket in here. (12) Spirit Maker is another firster in here that I have some interest in closing strongly against this field. This horse should be able to find his spot early in here and wait on Jose Ortiz to let him sprint down the stretch. Clement has two entered in here and I am taking a stand against (5) Big Everest in here and going with his stablemate (3) Stand with Mo. I love Uncle Mo lineage on grass and I think this horse will be getting a big ride from Dylan Davis to make him a player early. I think being in front in these types of races is the winning spot to be.
$3.00 WPS 7 Cost: $9.00
$1.00 Ex Box 3,4,7,12 Cost: $12.00
Race 8:
I really like (6) Nay Lady Nay in this one and strongly considered singling here, but the field is just too good to do that. Which is why I am including the top four horses on the morning line odds. (1) Cambier Parc is coming in strongly to this one and has a nice post position to find the lead early. (2) My Sister Nat fell too far behind in a slow race last time out and was unable to catch the eventual winner, but closed the best. (3) Civil Union is on a roll right now and I do not want to bet against the hot hand, so will include.
$5.00 WPS 6 Cost: $15.00
$2.00 Ex 2,6 w/ 1,2,3,6 Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 9:
I’ll take the two older contenders exiting the Woodward to start are late Pk3. (4) TACITUS will draw a lot of attention as he ran into a rising star in this division last time. Came up short there but didn’t run a bad race. I’m a little more in favor of the gelding that finished right behind him though. (2) PRIORITZE has been improving this year when they switched him to the dirt and stretched him out. He made up some ground late in the G1 and now gets Saez at the controls. That usually moves a horse up a few lengths. Both 3 year olds face their elders in this G1 today and that’s asking a lot. I’m more inclined to use (1) HAPPY SAVOR than Mystic Guide because he has speed. That’s always dangerous in short fields.
$7.00 WPS 2 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 2,4 w/ 1,2,4 Cost: $12.00
Race 10:
Brown keeps showing up with these Euros and winning many of these big races. Today it’s (1) TAMAHERE. She jogged back in June vs weaker but she posts bullet after bullet in the mornings. Irad sees it and quickly jumps on. A must use. (2) SPEAKTOMEOFSUMMER probably wants this 1M more than the distances she been going. Rosario may have to keep her closer to the pace than she wants as the race came up short of front runners. The other Brown is (3) SELFLESSLY. She woke up last time after a dull showing first out this year. She has a win on this course and is a true Miler. She gets a new pilot for this and looks like a strong win candidate.
$5.00 Ex 1,3 w/ 1,2,3,4 Cost: $30.00
Race 11:
A little ambitious with (2) HERALD ANGEL last time, but now is where she belongs. If Jose can navigate a trip from the rail, they look strong here. (11) VIOLENTIAM was looking for turf first out but it didn’t happen at the Spa. Now they try today after two 2nd place finishes on dirt and a bullet work last week. With Irad up, this gal should graduate today. There’s two firsters that I’ll use incase the top two take the afternoon off. Weaver has woke up recently and sends out (7) THE PROMISED ROAD. That’s enough for me to include. (9) MON CHERIE has been fast in the AM and these Cross Traffic’s seem to do well sprinting on the turf. When Johnny V sticks around for the nightcap, it’s worth noting. I’ll give this one a shot at the 10:1 ML.
Comments