Aqueduct 4/17 Early Pick 5 & Late Pick 3
- Little Pete
- Apr 17, 2021
- 6 min read
We have a nice 9 race card today at Aqueduct and are we are locked in to taking down a late pick 3 and the early pick 5. I will be focused on taking down the early pick 5 (races 1-5) and Big Pete will close the card with a late pick 3 (races 7-9). We also will have our "Play of the Day" on a race we would like to try and improve our bankroll on. We appreciate you taking time to look at this and hope we all can have a profitable day! GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $ 0.50 Early Pick 5:
R1: 2, 4, 5
R2: 9
R3: 4, 5, 7, 8, 9
R4: 3, 5, 6
R5: 2, 4, 6, 9
Cost: $90.00
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R7: 3, 5, 7
R8: 1, 2
R9: 4, 7, 8, 11, 13
Cost: $30.00
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 6:
I really like (1) Millean to the inside with the aggressive rider of Carmouche aboard. I think that we can get a pretty decent price on this horse and this race will be won on the front end. I like (2) Porfusion to run a competive race up front and these two horses could run away with it so putting this horse underneath. (3) LitterBox is a price horse that I think will be charging late down the stretch and could get up for second in here. (5) Giant Shoes is my last play for second place as I think that this horse will be a couple lengths back coming around the turn and make a late charge to challenge for second place.
$5.00 WPS 1 Cost: $15.00
$3.00 Ex 1 w/ 2,3,5 Cost: $9.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 1:
With the rail runner scratching out, (5) DARIA’S ANGEL will be very short odds in the opener. She looks like an easy winner here so we’ll concede and look for value underneath. (3) Whyisshesoolucky and (4) Violent Trick should both come late for the minor awards.
$ 10.00 Exacta 5 w/ 3, 4 Cost $ 20.00
We’ll also use Daria’s Angel in R1 and try to cash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
(5) Loulovestheriver and (9) Vodka Lemonade look solid in the 2nd
$ 10.00 Double 5 w/ 5, 9 Cost $ 20.00
Little Pete's Early Pick 5:
Race 1:
There was a big scratch in this one with (1) Excess Capactiy, so going to have to include the three best horses on paper in here. (2) Pecan Pattie is getting back to company in which she was running best against. We should expect this horse to be ridden more aggressively early and make her a player. (4) Violent Trick and (5) Daria's Angel are both exiting the same race and both look to be ready to roll on paper. I give the edge to a late charging (4) Violent Trick who I think will benefit from a bit of a faster pace and run strongly late.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
Race 2:
In these vertical plays you will need to be decisive in some of the legs and this is the one I chose. I am going to trust the combination of Jose Ortiz and Mike Maker. I have always been a fan of (9) Vodka Lemonade and think that this horse will run to his pedigree in here. I do like (6) Bourbon Brown and (8) Bricco in here, but sometimes you have to make some tough decisions in order to move forward at a reasonable price.
$5.00 Ex 9 w/ 6,8 Cost: $10.00
Race 3:
I spread out a good amount in this one with my top selection to be (4) Bardolino to pull of an upset in here. This is the first time that the horse is facing winners, but this horse beat my single in the race before (Vodka Lemonade) last time out and I think is live in this one. (5) City Mischief looks great on paper as well to run a big effort in here. (7) Three Outlaws is the speed in here and that will be attractive to bet on with this softer grass in this sprint. (8) Half Right also has some speed and I think will be guided towards the front early, which is the place to be in these sprints. Last play will be (9) Dancing Buck who should be able to navigate a nice trip from the outside, but what worries me is the energy needed to find his place early. I will include, but I prefer the others mentioned above.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 4,5 w/ 4,5,7,8,9 Cost: $16.00
Race 4:
(5) Honorable Service has ran the best race to date in 2021 and a must play here, but I think is a bit of a vulnerable favorite. I will try and beat with (3) The Great Dansky and (6) Mine the Coin. I like (6) Mine the Coin to be able to find the lead early in here and challenge the foes behind to catch him late. I think that (3) The Great Dansky will be able to find an early rail position and be able to put in a late bid to challenge for this one.
$2.00 Ex 3,6 w/ 3,5,6 Cost: $12.00
$2.00 Ex 5 w/ 3,6 Cost: $4.00
Race 5:
I really like (2) Mo Faith, but again could see others in here challenging this favorite. (4) Barleewon is in good form and going to assume this horse will be up for the challenge with the significant class jump. (6) Austrian is going to be the strongest horse late and I trust Carmouche to find the perfect lane for this horse to challenge to hit the wire first. Last play will be (9) Straw Into Gold who I think will run a similar style to (6) Austrian and I am going to trust the connections with this class jump as well.
$3.00 WPS 6 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 2,6 w/ 2,4,6,9 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 4,9 w/ 2,4,6,9 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 7:
I’ll focus on three in this 6.5F NYS Stake. (7) LOBSTA has been going longer and now cuts back. Both runners he beat last time returned to run well next out. He already has two wins which is one more than all but one in here. Cancel returns but he isn’t winning as much as he used to. (5) MARKET ALERT won last out and appears to be in good form right now. Ryerson must mean business as he switches to Jose. Steady work tab is a good sign that this guy is ready to go. (3) IT’S GRAVY hasn’t missed the board yet. The slight cut back should work in his favor and Jr gets the call. He’ll likely set up camp mid pack and wait for his cue.
$7.00 WPS 3 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 3,5 w/ 3,4,5,7 Cost: $18.00
Race 8:
The race goes through (1) HARD LOVE. His Central Park jumps off the page posting a big number that the rest of this field hasn’t come close to. Castellano ships in for the easy money and I can’t fault him. A single if you want to manage your bankroll. I’ll use one more. (2) IT’S A GAMBLE is my wise guy pick. He needs distance and gets it today. He was getting to Original on the speed favoring GP turf course and he should get lost in the betting. Jr subs in will likely follow the favorite around the track and hopes Hard Love only is 80 % today.
$7.00 WPS 2 Cost: $21.00
$5.00 Ex 1,2 w/ 1,2,5 Cost: $20.00
Race 9:
We’ll spread out here as the first two legs may be chalky. (11) SASSY MELISSA probably wants grass and gets the upgrade with the jock switch. (13) CALL ME CARMELITA draws in and hasn’t proven that she can’t run yet like most of this field. (4) ESOTICA drops in and tries turf. Speed can be dangerous at this level so this gal is a threat to take them all the way. (7) MENZAMENZ has four grass attempts and they appear to be her best races of her career. Not that they are great but it’s her preferred surface. Lastly, (8) ORMA closed to get 4th in her debut and will draw a lot of attention. A similar effort and the addition of McCarthy may bode well for her.
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