Aqueduct 3/25 Pick 3 Plays
- Little Pete
- Mar 25, 2021
- 5 min read
Thursday racing at the Big A and we have you covered for the pick 6 sequence. We will be breaking down the races into a pair of pick 3 plays that we feel good about. I will be covering races 3-5 and Big Pete will be closing the card with races 6-8. We also will have our "Play of the Day" on the two other races on the card to give you a full breakdown of each of the eight races. Hope you are playing along and GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R3: 2, 3, 4, 5
R4: 3, 4, 6
R5: 1, 3, 7, 8
Cost: $48.00
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R6: 2, 4, 5, 7
R7: 2, 5, 7
R8: 2, 3, 4, 5
Cost: $48.00
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 2:
I think Manny is poised to have a pretty good day and think that he has the winning horse in (2) Mongolian Humor. This horse should be able to find a nice position around the turn to have plenty left in the tank to run on with it. I think that we can play into our PK3 play with this horse and hit on a nice WPS.
$5.00 WPS 2 Cost: $15.00
$0.50 Pick 4:
R2: 2
R3: 2,3,4,5
R4: 3,4,6
R5: 1,3,7,8
Cost: $24.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 1:
(3) TEKILA figures to be short odds and Cancel subs in. Not a lot to challenge this Liam’s Map so we won’t try to beat her. I’ll look for some value to sneak underneath for the exacta. The connections of (5) Firing Carol won’t draw too much attention but Carol showed some improvement last time stretching out. (4) Dare To Promise added L1 last time and it seemed to help. They too can come late.
$ 7.00 Exacta 3 w/ 4, 5 Cost $ 14.00
We’ll also use Tekila in R1 and try to cash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
(2) Mongolian Humor and (4) Blitchton Lady look solid in the 2nd
$ 7.00 Double 3 w/ 2, 4 Cost $ 14.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 3:
(4) Madera looks to be the clear favorite in here at this level, but the quick turnaround does intimidate me in here. This horse is running at 7 furlongs for the first time and has limited rest, so could be a bit tired late even with the impressive performance last time out where she won by 5 furlongs. (2) Tuff Bird is going to be ridden aggressively in here to find the lead under Carmouche and I think may be able to hang around in the front for the duration of the race. We know this horse will be given a great ride from the gate and that could be the advantage this horse needs to wire this field. (3) Stunning Munnings should be right off the pace from the break and should be able to fan out wide to try and run down the front runners. Last play will be (5) Gringotts who I think is coming in with good form and ready to run another big race on an off track. This horse should be able to find a nice early position behind the front runners and be a dangerous horse come late.
$3.00 WPS 2 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 2,5 w/ 2,3,4,5 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 3,4 w/ 2,3,4,5 Cost: $6.00
Race 4:
I fell for three in here and two of them being firsters. A 5 year old firster in (3) Irish Giant from the Linda Rice barn is a bit worrisome, but tough to leave off the ticket. This horse should be able to handle this off track and other horses in here with experience do not scream to like a wet track. (4) Med School Michael has some okay workouts leading in and could be ready to charge late against this field. Nik Juarez beat me with a firster last weekend that I was on the fence about and the wound is still fresh. (6) SimbasAllTrouble will be my last play and only play for a horse with some track experience. This horse has shown the ability to stick around and if the firsters aren't who I think they are then I want this horse to just sustain a decent run in here.
$3.00 WPS 4 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 3,4,6 Cost: $12.00
Race 5:
(8) Beaver Creek looks very dangerous on paper in this one and a must play for me. Dylan Davis will be aggressive from the gate to find an early rail position and we are unsure how closing on this track will be. (7) Victory Built will be my play for a closer in here if there is an early pace battle and opens up the lane for a late surger. (3) Jimmy the Kid gets Carmouche again in this one after a wire to wire winning effort last time out. The rail position is favorable and this horse could be ascending at the right time to take this field down. Last play will be (1) Giant Shoes who is going to ride the rail from the beginning and Manny will be able to pick his spot as to when to send this horse down the stretch.
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,3 w/ 1,3,7,8 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 7,8 w/ 1,3,7,8 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 6:
(7) SHAKER SHACK has shown some early zip in her last two and guessing that will be the plan with McCarthy aboard again. If she gets clear again, they probably don’t catch her. (4) DRAMATIC TWIST has won impressively last time and figures to get a decent set up again. Summer Brew returned to win last time and she beat her rather easy. (2) BETSY BLUE beat a weaker field but did it with a fast time. If she can run that ast today, there’s no reason she can’t get her picture taken again. (5) BUSTINMYGROOVE has been switching barns lately so there must be something to like about her. Will offer good value and has that Uncle Mo presence to run big on any given day.
$7.00 WPS 4 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 2,4 w/ 2,4,5,7 Cost: $18.00
Race 7:
I’ll use three in here but lean heavy on two. (2) GLASS CEILING has had many chances at this level but she should get a nice set up today. The filly she beat last time returned to jog and the 6F fits her a little better. Rudy will prove a tough customer with (5) CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE. They gave Maiden Beauty all she could handle two back then, burned money on a quirky track earlier this month. We’ll get a decent price for their return to Aqueduct. (7) DIAL ME UP won fresh off the Rice claim and will look to control from the start.
$7.00 WPS 5 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 2,5 w/ 2,5,7,8 Cost: $18.00
Race 8:
(3) BEATTHATFLEW was making progress and was bet to run well last time. An awkward start put him at a disadvantage and was forced to make up ground late. Cancel returns for another crack so look for this guy to show up again. I can’t pass on (2) CAPE CODGEM as I like him last time as lone speed but couldn’t clear from his outside post. The move closer to the rail works in his favor. The fact that the aggressive Carmouche gets the call from Hennig is enough for me. (4) WHATS IN IT FOR ME has improved enough recently to be the main danger in here. The 1M was too far so the 7F should work today. (5) PATTY O’MARC shortens up and drops for Rice. They were bet heavy in their debut so may be there’s some talent in there somewhere.
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