Aqueduct 3/19 Pick 3 Plays
- Little Pete
- Mar 19, 2021
- 5 min read
Friday racing at the Big A and you can just sense the changing of the seasons. We are very much excited for the warmer weather and the NY circuit headed into this summer. We will be attacking a pair of pick 3 plays today as well as our "Play of the Day" on a race we would like to try and improve our bankroll on. I will be focused on races 3-5 and Big Pete will be locked into races 6-8. GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R3: 4, 5, 6
R4: 4, 6, 7, 8
R5: 1, 3, 4, 6
Cost: $48.00
Big Pete's $1.00 Late Pick 3:
R6: 2, 4, 7
R7: 3, 5, 6, 9
R8: 1, 2, 4, 9
Cost: $48.00
Little Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 1:
(6) Cadeau De Paix is getting back to the lower level company that she has won against and today looks good for her to get another win under her belt. I expect Cardenas to be able to find a rail position early and run on with it late with a fanned out running style come stretch drive.
$5.00 WPS 6 Cost: $15.00
$3.00 Ex 6 w/ 1,2,3,4,5 Cost: $15.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 2:
Cancel returns aboard (4) TAKE IT OFF and Dutrow is doing everything right this meet. They beat MCL30k two back and the mud didn’t seem to bother her. We should get decent odds as most will over bet the rail runner for Maker. The cut back to 6F should work in her favor today.
(1) Overdressed and (6) Rosey’s Peach have decent runs for a shot at the exacta.
$ 7.00 WPS 4 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 4 w/ 1, 6 Cost $ 14.00
We’ll also use Take It Off in R2 and try to cash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
(3) Too Early and (6) Tiergan look solid in the 3rd
$ 7.00 Double 4 w/ 3, 6 Cost $ 14.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 3:
I am going to try and beat the morning line favorite, (3) Too Early, in here. (5) Wild Banker is going to be my top pick in here as I believe Kendrick will send this horse to the lead and not look back. There seems to be some horses looking for a closing trip and if Kendrick can set some favorable fractions then this horse will be a tough catch come stretch drive. I also like (6) Tiergan to be in a nice rail stalking position after the break. This horse has enough early speed to find his place at the rail and has shown the ability to close strongly. Last play will be (4) Rift Valley who I think will get a great closing ride by Cancel. This horse will be the strongest late and if the front running horses tire each other out, then I like this horse to run by them late.
$3.00 WPS 5 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 4,5,6 Cost: $12.00
Race 4:
(8) Wicked Happy is going to be my top play in here as I see this horse being able to fan out wide come stretch drive and have a convincing win here. With that said, this is a lower level field and can not trust this horse to perform exactly how I believe she will. (4) Malibu Anthem will be aggressively ridden early and just be a horse that the field can't catch up to late. (6) Rose E Holiday is going to improve second time out and had a decent debut. (7) Venus Oyzo will be my last play with the class drop and could wake this horse up.
$3.00 WPS 8 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 6,8 w/ 4,6,7,8 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 4,7 w/ 4,6,7,8 Cost: $6.00
Race 5:
(1) Joycee Haz Pizzaz is coming in after winning two in a row at this level and picking up Cancel. This horse is going to be coming strongly late, especially with the good rail position. (3) Principal Dancer is also going to be coming strong late and I do expect there to be some early speed in here. This horse may be in the perfect form to handle this field. (4) TrueBelieve is going to be sent to the lead and try and wire the field. The horse has the right jockey to do just that. (6) Cobble Hill from the outside is an interesting play in here who has some speed and could get an aggressive ride early in here to find rail position. I will include for the connections in here.
$3.00 WPS 1 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,4 w/ 1,3,4,6 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 3,6 w/ 1,3,4,6 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 6:
The connections of (4) MISTER WINSTON will draw a lot of attention. The horse, not so much. He’s been away for a little bit so he must have had issues. He’s bred to excel at this 7F distance, so if he’s 100%, he definitely is a player. (7) O’TROUBLE is just that to this field. He put together back to back runs for Dutrow that make him tough in here today. Cancel bails to the Brown runner but Davis should sub in just fine. I’ll try to beat them both with (2) SOMEBODY. After first glance, he looks cheap, but Bond is heating up and Cardenas is now two for two with him. He seems to be a different animal this winter. This might be his best distance and he gets in light. Worth a shot at the 6:1 ML.
$7.00 WPS 2 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 2, 7 w/ 2, 4, 7 Cost: $18.00
Race 7:
Looks like I’ll lean on the Bond/Cardenas to win back to back as (9) NOCTILUCENT responded nicely last time when he got L1 and blinkers added. The one turn 1M should not hurt and it looks like there will be some speed to stalk and close into. (3) CENTAVO is the one of the speeds that worry me. He stretched out nicely for the win but that was against slightly weaker foes. (5) BLU GROTTO is another one with speed. Blu and Carmouche blitzed fellow MCL runners at 7F. This Bodemeister shouldn’t mind the extra furlong. The question is…...what do you do with (6) CIVIL WAR. He’s been facing much better and now drops and adds L1 in hopes of collecting a check. Moisture should help.
$7.00 WPS 9 Cost: $21.00
$3.00 Ex 6, 9 w/ 3, 5, 6, 9 Cost: $18.00
Race 8:
(4) ERNIE BANKER ran a decent figure last time and now drops in for a tag. Davis reunites with him a year later and I like the 6F better for him. The rest of those that have run already are nothing to write home about so I’ll use all three making their debut today. (1A) REGALITY has a couple of quick gate works for Asmussen and the Alpha influence will help with an off track. (2) PAPA SMOOTH attracts Carmouche away from the likely favorite. Would not be a surprise if they gun to the lead and try to bottom them out. (9) HOTEL CHARLIE is Levine and Cancel and both are having a meet. All three firsters are decent ML odds. Watch the board close to post time to see if any one of them is taking money. If so, follow the money.
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